The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence

Marika Karanassou () and Hector Sala

No 4252, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper addresses the various methodological issues surrounding vector autoregressions, simultaneous equations, and chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that money growth is a superior indicator of the monetary environment than the federal funds rate and, thus, the focus is on the inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of moments) estimations confirm earlier findings in Karanassou, Sala and Snower (2005, 2008b) obtained from chain reaction structural models: the slope of the US Phillips curve is far from vertical, even in the long-run, which implies that the nominal and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoffs, policy makers should reconsider the classical dichotomy thesis.

Keywords: chain reactions; unemployment; money growth; SVAR; GMM; inflation; structural modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E31 E51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2009-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published - published as 'The US Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off Revisited: New Evidence for Policy Making' in: Journal of Policy Modeling, 2010, 32 (6), 758-777

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Working Paper: The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence (2009)
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