An empirical analysis of economic growth in countries exposed to coastal risks: Implications for their ecosystems

Farid Gasmi, Laura Recuero Virto and Denis Couvet ()
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Farid Gasmi: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Laura Recuero Virto: PULV - Pôle Universitaire Léonard de Vinci, i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Denis Couvet: MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle

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Abstract: Using a novel database on countries exposed to coastal risks (CR), this paper estimates an augmented neoclassical growth model that encompasses eight other new growth models. To account for uncertainty related to the number of models and choice of growth determinant proxies, we use a Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. A preliminary examination of the data reveals that a country that faces coastal risks is likely to be a former British colony characterized by a common law legal framework, a parliamentary political system, a high degree of international trade openness, little language and ethnic fractionalization, a low level of public sector corruption, and a high rate of fertility. The BACE-based model selection procedure shows that, in CR countries, the growth determinant proxies typically used in the neoclassical, macroeconomic policy, natural resources, and institutions theories are significantly correlated with growth. These results suggest two implications related to these countries' coastal ecosystems. First, because they are heavily dependent on natural resources and have high fertility rates, these countries might seek short-term economic gains at the expense of deterioration in their ecosystems. Second, these countries' good institutions and low levels of ethnic division might be conducive to sustainable management of these ecosystems.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Coastal risks; Economic growth; Ecosystems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04547896v1
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Published in Economic Systems, 2023, 47 (4), pp.101130. ⟨10.1016/j.ecosys.2023.101130⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04547896

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2023.101130

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