Exposure to Deaths of Despair and U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes

Nicole Siegal ()
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Nicole Siegal: University of Hawaii Manoa

No 202307, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper evaluates how a community's exposure to deaths from suicide, drug overdose, alcohol poisoning, and liver disease (commonly referred to as Òdeaths of despairÓ) affects outcomes in U.S. Presidential elections. Using county-level panel data and two-way fixed effects regressions, I find that a standard deviation increase in the deaths of despair mortality rate led to an increase in the Republican (GOP) vote share of 2.36 percentage points. Prior studies have linked voting outcomes to economic trends such as income inequality, import competition, and financial crises, but controlling for these and other economic and demographic factors does not substantially change my estimates. Estimates are larger and only statistically significant in later years (2016-2020), compared to earlier years (2004-2012). There were stronger effects in counties that the GOP candidate won in the previous election, and in counties with higher White population percentages. The results are maintained when using an instrumental variables approach to mitigate endogeneity concerns.

Keywords: deaths of despair; elections; opioid epidemic; political polarization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 I1 I18 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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