The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?

Emerson Marçal, Ronan Cunha, Giovanni Merlin and Oscar Simões

No 459, Textos para discussão from FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil)

Abstract: Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow test. The rejection of the null hypothesis in the first test shows that financial events had impacts on Brazilian economy whereas rejection in the second is an evidence of contagion. Our estimates suggest that Brazilian industrial production dropped -9.34% at annual rate basis from December 2007 till June 2009 compared to a scenario of no effect and -6,34% when compared to a scenario of no contagion.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d66c7fff-9c8 ... 30c64ba776e/download (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fgv:eesptd:459

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Textos para discussão from FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE ().