Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Morgan Bazilian, Patrick Nussbaumer, Hans-Holger Rogner, Abeeku Brew-Hammond Brew-Hammond, Vivien Foster, Shonali Pachauri, Eric Williams, Mark Howells, Philippe Niyongabo, Lawrence Musaba, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Mark Radka and Daniel M. Kammen
Additional contact information
Morgan Bazilian: United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Patrick Nussbaumer: United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Hans-Holger Rogner: International Atomic Energy Agency
Abeeku Brew-Hammond Brew-Hammond: The Energy Center, KNUST
Vivien Foster: The World Bank
Shonali Pachauri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Eric Williams: International Atomic Energy Agency
Mark Howells: KTH Technical University
Philippe Niyongabo: African Union Commission
Lawrence Musaba: Southern African Power Pool
Brian Ó Gallachóir: University College Cork
Mark Radka: United Nations Environment Programme
Daniel M. Kammen: The World Bank

No 2011.68, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.

Keywords: Energy Access; Power System Planning; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-ene
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.68

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