Future perspectives of international bioenergy trade

Julian Matzenberger, Lukas Kranzl, Eric Tromborg, Martin Junginger, Vassilis Daioglou, Chun Sheng Goh and Kimon Keramidas

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, vol. 43, issue C, 926-941

Abstract: According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, primary demand for bioenergy will strongly increase up to the year 2035: the demand for biofuels and biomass for electricity is expected to triple. These changes will have an impact on the regional balance of demand and supply of bioenergy leading to both increasing trade flows and changes in trade patterns. The GFPM, TIMER and POLES models have been selected for a detailed comparison of scenarios and their impact on global bioenergy trade: In ambitious scenarios, 14–26% of global bioenergy demand is traded between regions in 2030. The model scenarios show a huge range of potential bioenergy trade: for solid biomass, in ambitious scenarios bioenergy trade ranges from 700Mt to more than 2,500Mt in 2030. For liquid biomass, the ambitious scenarios show a bioenergy trade in the range of 65 - >360Mt in 2030. Considering the currently very small share of internationally traded bioenergy, this would result in huge challenges and require tremendous changes in terms of production, pretreatment of biomass and development of logistic chains.

Keywords: Bioenergy; International trade; Model review (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.106

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