The Geography of Output Volatility

Jonathan Temple and Adeel Malik

No 5516, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.

Keywords: Institutions; Bayesian model averaging; Volatility; Geography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-int and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The geography of output volatility (2009)
Working Paper: The Geography of Output Volatility (2005)
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