Sequential Learning with Endogenous Consideration Sets

Alessandro Pavan and Daniel Fershtman

No 15018, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We study the problem of a decision maker alternating between exploring existing alternatives and searching for new ones. We show that the decision to search depends on the composition of the consideration set only through the information the latter contains about the probability of finding new alternatives. When the search technology is stationary, or improves over time, search is equivalent to replacement. With deteriorating technologies, instead, alternatives are revisited after search is launched and each expansion is treated as if it were the last one. The analysis yields a formula for pricing new alternatives and/or the option to expand the consideration set in the future. We also show how to accommodate for certain irreversible choices that admit as special case a generalization of Weitzman’s (1979) “Pandora’s boxes†problem in which the set of boxes is endogenous and each alternative may require multiple explorations before it can be selected.

Keywords: Consideration sets; Sequential search; Experimentation; Multi-arm bandit problems; Learning; Platforms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
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