The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate

Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi and Enrique Sentana
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

No 13042, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We document a rise and fall of the natural interest rate (r*) for several advanced economies, which starts increasing in the 1960’s and peaks around the end of the 1980’s. We reach this conclusion after showing that the Laubach and Williams (2003) model cannot estimate r* accurately when either the IS curve or the Phillips curve is flat. In those empirically relevant situations, a local level specification for the observed interest rate can precisely estimate r*. An estimated Panel ECM suggests that the temporary demographic effect of the young baby-boomers mostly accounts for the rise and fall.

Keywords: Natural rate of interest; Kalman filter; Observability; Demographics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 C32 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13042 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: The rise and fall of the natural interest rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13042

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13042

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().