Latin American Growth PartnersDiego Winkelried and Miguel Saldarriaga in Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez" from Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA Abstract: This paper examines how shocks originated in large economies around the globe have transmitted to the growth rates of Latin American countries. For this purpose, a highly parsimonious structural VAR model – identified through bilateral trade inkages – is proposed, tested, estimated and simulated. Since trade weights evolve through time, the effect of shocks are time-varying. Thus, we are able to quantify how growth in the region has been affected by tighter trading linkages with fast-growing emerging economies, and how it has responded to a new world trade structure, featuring China as a major player. It is found that about half of the vigourous growth reported in Latin American countries by the end of the 2000s can be attributed to (direct and especially indirect) multiplier effects induced by the spectacular growth of the Chinese economy over the same period. Keywords: Latin America; China; structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cml:prodgz:prg2012eng Ordering information: This item can be ordered from Access Statistics for this book More books in Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez" from Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA Contact information at EDIRC. |
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