Vax Populi: The Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism

Matilde Giaccherini, Joanna Kopinska and Gabriele Rovigatti

No 10184, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper quantiﬁes the impact of online vaccine skepticism on pediatric vaccine uptake and health outcomes. We propose a novel methodology that combines Natural Language Processing and an instrumental variable strategy that leverages the intransitivity of the social network’s connections. By matching the universe of Italian vaccine-related tweets for 2013-2018 with vaccine coverage and preventable hospitalizations at the municipality level, we ﬁnd that a 10pp increase in anti-vaccine sentiment causes i) a 0.43pp decrease in coverage of the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine, ii) additional 2.1 hospitalizations among vulnerable populations per 100,000 residents, and iii) an 11% increase in the relevant healthcare expenses, equivalent to 7,311 euros. Drawing on the results of a simulated model, we further show the importance of targeted interventions to counter misinformation and improve vaccine uptake.

Keywords: social network; Twitter; vaccines; controversialness; polarization; text analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 D85 I18 L82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-eur and nep-net
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Vax Populi: the Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism (2024)
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