Untimely Reopening? Increase in the Number of New COVID‐19 Cases After Reopening in One Brazilian State

Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022, vol. 84, issue 4, 675-693

Abstract: Santa Catarina was one of the first Brazilian states to allow businesses to reopen on 22 April 2020. I apply the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of the reopening on incidence of daily COVID‐19 cases in Santa Catarina, including 17 Brazilian states in the donor pool. Conclusions about causality between the government measures and the infection spread can be made, although with caution, given the setup of a natural experiment and not actually randomly assigned treatment. The results are robust and show that the reopening leads to a faster spread of the virus, causing between 13.8% and 50% of all infections recorded in the following weeks. This study corroborates the recommendation for policies limiting circulation of people as a means to mitigate the spread of novel infectious diseases.

Date: 2022
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