A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU

No 201309, AQR Working Papers from University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group

Abstract: Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

Keywords: absorptive capacity; inventor mobility; spatial networks; patents; regional innovation. JEL classification: J11; J15; J61; C23; C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2013-10, Revised 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-ino, nep-mig and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU (2017)
Working Paper: A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU (2013)
Working Paper: A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201309

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