Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review

Ser-Huang Poon and Clive Granger

Journal of Economic Literature, 2003, vol. 41, issue 2, 478-539

Abstract: Financial market volatility is an important input for investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. The emphasis of this review article is on forecasting instead of modelling; it compares the volatility forecasting findings in 93 papers published and written in the last two decades. Provided in this paper as well are volatility definitions, insights into problematic issues of forecast evaluation, data frequency, extreme values and the measurement of "actual" volatility. We compare volatility forecasting performance of two main approaches; historical volatility models and volatility implied from options. Forecasting results are compared across different asset classes and geographical regions.

Date: 2003
Note: DOI: 10.1257/002205103765762743
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