The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

No 18054, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets.

JEL-codes: F16 H53 J23 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-lab and nep-ltv
Note: IFM LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (50)

Published as David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-68, October.

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Journal Article: The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States (2013)
Working Paper: The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States (2013)
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