Monte Carlo simulation experiments for analysis of HIV vaccine effects and vaccine trial design
Pages 1985 - 1994
Abstract
The field of infectious disease epidemiology has increasingly adopted stochastic simulation technologies to simulate complex infectious disease transmission systems. Such simulations have both increased the scientific understanding of infectious disease transmission dynamics and served as important tools for evaluating epidemiologic study designs and statistical methods. This paper reports on a discrete-event simulation to analyze the recently developed Retrospective Partner Trials (RPT) HIV vaccine trial design. A specially designed simulation system, HIVSIM, was used to simulate data resulting from the RPT design vaccine trials. HIVSIM explicitly models complex HIV transmission dynamics (e.g., sexual partner mixing patterns and concurrent sexual partnerships) and vaccine trial design characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation analyses conducted with HIVSIM indicate that the RPT design is able to produce vaccine effect estimates with acceptably small bias, high precision and excellent statistical power under plausible HIV vaccine trial conditions. Additionally, the explicit simulation of HIV transmission dynamics permits investigations into the common, but unwarranted, statistical independence assumptions routinely used in the estimation of vaccine effects.
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- Monte Carlo simulation experiments for analysis of HIV vaccine effects and vaccine trial design
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Published In
December 2000
2014 pages
ISBN:0780365828
- Conference Chairs:
- Paul A. Fishwick,
- Keeborn Kang,
- Jeffrey A. Joines,
- Russell R. Barton
Sponsors
- IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
- ASA: American Statistical Association
- SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
- IEEE/CS: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/Computer Society
- NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
- INFORMS-CS: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences-College on Simulation
- IEEE/SMCS: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society
- SCS: The Society for Computer Simulation International
Publisher
Society for Computer Simulation International
San Diego, CA, United States
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Published: 10 December 2000
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