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Linked lives: the utility of an agent-based approach to modeling partnership and household formation in the context of social care

Authors:

Eric Silverman,

Stuart Rossiter,

Maria Evandrou,

Athina Vlachantoni,

Jane FalkinghamAuthors Info & Claims

WSC '12: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference

Article No.: 93, Pages 1 - 12

Published: 09 December 2012 Publication History

Abstract

The UK's population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of "linked lives" and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes.

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Silverman, E., J. Bijak, and J. Noble. 2011. "Feeding the beast: can computational demographic models free us from the tyranny of data?". In Advances in Artificial Life, ECAL 2011: Proceedings of the Eleventh European Conference on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems, edited by T. Lenaerts, M. Giacobini, H. Bersini, P. Bourgine, M. Dorigo, and R. Doursat, 747--754. MIT Press.

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Digital Library

Cited By

Heß KHimmelspach JReinhardt OUhrmacher A(2021)A generalized network generation approach for agent-based modelsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3522802.3522808(1-12)Online publication date: 13-Dec-2021
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3522802.3522808
Silverman EGostoli U(2020)PhaseProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3466184.3466198(135-146)Online publication date: 14-Dec-2020
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3466184.3466198
Kim JKim NPaik ELee CBae J(2017)Practical application of wedding ring in agent-based demographic simulationProceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3242181.3242566(1-12)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3242181.3242566
Show More Cited By

Index Terms

Linked lives: the utility of an agent-based approach to modeling partnership and household formation in the context of social care
1. Computing methodologies
  1. Artificial intelligence
    1. Distributed artificial intelligence
      1. Multi-agent systems
  2. Modeling and simulation
    1. Model development and analysis
      1. Model verification and validation

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Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences

WSC '12: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference

December 2012

4271 pages

General Chair:
Oliver Rose
Universität der Bundeswehr München, Germany
,
Program Chair:
Adelinde M. Uhrmacher
University of Rostock, Germany

Sponsors

IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
INFORMS-SIM: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences: Simulation Society
SCS: Shanghai Computer Society
SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling

Publisher

Winter Simulation Conference

Publication History

Published: 09 December 2012

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WSC '12

Sponsor:

IIE
INFORMS-SIM
SCS
SIGSIM

WSC '12: Winter Simulation Conference

December 9 - 12, 2012

Berlin, Germany

Acceptance Rates

WSC '12 Paper Acceptance Rate 189 of 384 submissions, 49%;

Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

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Cited By

Heß KHimmelspach JReinhardt OUhrmacher A(2021)A generalized network generation approach for agent-based modelsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3522802.3522808(1-12)Online publication date: 13-Dec-2021
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3522802.3522808
Silverman EGostoli U(2020)PhaseProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3466184.3466198(135-146)Online publication date: 14-Dec-2020
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3466184.3466198
Kim JKim NPaik ELee CBae J(2017)Practical application of wedding ring in agent-based demographic simulationProceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3242181.3242566(1-12)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3242181.3242566
Viana JZiener VHolhjem MPonton IThøgersen LSimonsen T(2017)Optimizing home hospital health service delivery in norway using a combined geographical information system, agent based, discrete event simulation modelProceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3242181.3242317(1-12)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3242181.3242317
Kim JRansikarbum KKim NPaik EFujimoto RUnger BCarothers C(2016)Agent-based Simulation Modeling of Low Fertility Trap HypothesisProceedings of the 2016 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation10.1145/2901378.2901399(83-86)Online publication date: 15-May-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2901378.2901399
Warnke TSteiniger AUhrmacher AKlabunde AWillekens F(2015)ML3Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2888619.2888937(2764-2775)Online publication date: 6-Dec-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2888619.2888937
Brailsford S(2015)Hybrid simulation in healthcareProceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2888619.2888805(1645-1653)Online publication date: 6-Dec-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2888619.2888805
Wickramasinghe BSingh DPadgham LYilmaz LÖren TMadey GSierhuis MZhang Y(2015)Synchronising agent populations when combining agent-based simulationsProceedings of the Symposium on Agent-Directed Simulation10.5555/2872538.2872546(61-68)Online publication date: 12-Apr-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2872538.2872546
Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens FBuckley SMiller J(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2693848.2694224(2978-2989)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2693848.2694224
Brailsford SViana JRossiter SChannon ALotery AHill RKuhl M(2013)Hybrid simulation for health and social careProceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World10.5555/2675983.2676015(258-269)Online publication date: 8-Dec-2013
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2675983.2676015
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