Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Feb 6 10:12:03 EST 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.6 87.9 82.9 77.8 71.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .542 88.1 73.9 38.34380 30.08260 68.42640 Orioles 0 0 .523 84.9 77.1 24.36460 30.49720 54.86180 Red Sox 0 0 .515 83.3 78.7 19.07410 28.50020 47.57430 Blue Jays 0 0 .494 79.8 82.2 10.54920 21.73110 32.28030 Rays 0 0 .481 78.1 83.9 7.66830 18.00380 25.67210
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.5 84.5 78.9 72.5 59.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .515 84.8 77.2 37.30290 18.99370 56.29660 Guardians 0 0 .502 82.8 79.2 28.01900 18.87130 46.89030 Tigers 0 0 .485 79.8 82.2 18.00170 15.77800 33.77970 Royals 0 0 .483 79.2 82.8 16.40070 15.00060 31.40130 White Sox 0 0 .375 60.7 101.3 .27570 .40820 .68390
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.1 87.3 80.8 73.7 65.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .544 89.1 72.9 42.32160 30.32420 72.64580 Astros 0 0 .537 88.2 73.8 37.76270 31.56520 69.32790 Rangers 0 0 .506 82.3 79.7 15.98590 27.26130 43.24720 Angels 0 0 .448 72.2 89.8 2.30030 7.40090 9.70120 Athletics 0 0 .437 70.6 91.4 1.62950 5.58170 7.21120 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 101.2 92.7 85.3 74.6 56.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 0 0 .600 97.2 64.8 55.69680 32.88230 88.57910 Phillies 0 0 .563 91.1 70.9 24.44400 45.42070 69.86470 Mets 0 0 .555 89.2 72.8 18.49260 43.61690 62.10950 Nationals 0 0 .473 75.8 86.2 1.36230 9.69230 11.05460 Marlins 0 0 .364 57.2 104.8 .00430 .07410 .07840
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.3 86.4 80.7 75.0 67.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .557 90.4 71.6 55.33320 14.48070 69.81390 Cardinals 0 0 .511 82.4 79.6 18.25630 15.40100 33.65730 Brewers 0 0 .509 82.0 80.0 17.13360 14.85390 31.98750 Reds 0 0 .471 75.6 86.4 5.53180 6.40970 11.94150 Pirates 0 0 .459 73.7 88.3 3.74510 4.58200 8.32710
Average wins by position in NL West: 105.2 92.3 83.3 74.8 55.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .640 103.9 58.1 81.43650 15.82280 97.25930 Diamondbacks 0 0 .564 90.9 71.1 14.55300 54.57430 69.12730 Giants 0 0 .504 81.0 81.0 2.32820 23.29920 25.62740 Padres 0 0 .498 79.5 82.5 1.68060 18.83900 20.51960 Rockies 0 0 .359 56.2 105.8 .00170 .05110 .05280 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 96.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 91.4 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.