Mariners Morsels - aka "Free Adam Moore and Rich Poythress! (George Sherrill is FREE!)"

Perhaps because of my friendship with Jason Churchill, I'd say this is the most informed I've ever been coming into a draft. To keep things in perspective, however, I'll definitely caveat that by saying I've still really got no clue. I have some opinions, and they're semi-informed, but my opinions aren't really worth much. Still, I'll take a few minutes and jot down my thoughts because I always like to look back years later to see what I was thinking and to provide context for future arguments that I know I'll have...

When building my opinion on players for the draft, I place a lot more value in scouting reports than in statistics. There are so many factors that influence statistics such that you can't really tell by the statistics what type of baseball player a draftee may become. Yeah, you can see some trends and some things in the numbers, but they're almost as meaningless as spring training statistics. Having said that, you can't ignore statistics all together. Obviously a guy who slugs .700 has some pop in his bat. Aluminum bats or not, that can't be ignored.

When the M's swept Oakland to end the season, they lost the shot at having the first overall pick in today's draft. That pretty much meant they're the bridesmaid in the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. While it is sort of a bummer, I'm going to focus on the positives. Heh.

In general, pitchers are riskier than hitters. High school pitchers are riskier than college pitchers. That seems to be common knowledge. So, in that regard, I would be fine with the M's being the bridesmaid in this draft when Dustin Ackley is the "consolation prize." He's a lefty bat, with tremendous speed, decent power, good outfield instincts, and he should be a safe bet to be a decent player in the majors. I'm not going to name "comps" because that's just ridiculous, IMHO, but should his arm heal up enough to regain strength to throw from CF again, he will be a very good value. Interestingly, and somewhat unsurprisingly, Dave Cameron throws the idea up on FanGraphs that "there's a not-too-ridiculous case to be made that the Nationals should draft Dustin Ackley instead [of Strasburg]." I've been thinking that for quite some time (and not just because of wishful thinking that Washintgon passes on Strasburg).

Tanner Scheppers is a guy that's been talked a lot about, too. While there's legitmate concerns about his shoulder stuff (as there was with Morrow), his "stuff" is second only to Strasburg's (according to the reports I've read). There's a lot of risk with pitchers in general, so it'll be interesting to see what happens to him, even if the M's don't draft him.

Guys I've been following a bit are Rich Poythress, Matt Purke and Tyler Matzek. The latter two are prep pitchers -- left handers -- with excellent stuff. Poythress is a righty lumbering first baseman for Georgia. If any of those three fell to the M's at 27, I'd be excited. I doubt any of them will, however, even with outrageous bonus demands.

Guys I'm not very high on in this draft (where others are) include Grant Green and Brett Jackson. Green's got some legitimate concerns w/r/t fielding position, and Brett Jackson has questions about his bat. They're still both good enough to be considered first rounders in this current draft, however.

One thing's for certain -- about the only thing the M's DON'T need is a relief pitcher. Yeah, they have some depth at several positions, but I'm pretty confident that if they choose a particular player it won't solely be because they're drafting a guy to fill a need. Since Day One, Zduriencik has said it's all about filling this team with as much talent as it can get. Ryan Divish reports this morning that the M's aren't really concerned about bonus demands -- they're more focused on getting the "best player available:"

And according to McNamara, the Mariners are committed to getting the best players. Things like outrageous signing bonuses and difficult agents aren’t issues.

“Not an issue,” he said. “We’re lining them up and taking the best guys. We keep it to talent.

I'll believe that when I see it. Clearly the budget-conscious Howard Lincoln has given Zduriencik and McNamara a dollar figure. And that dollar figure is probably lower than what M's fans and draft followers think it should be.

If, however, Washington takes Cameron's advice and picks Ackley over Strasburg, then I'm willing to bet that dollar figure is increased just a little bit.

I'm with Zdurienck, Mac! Just get it right! I've been very disappointed with the M's choices in the most recent draft. Save for Aumont, they've pretty much gone in the direction I didn't want them to go in. This year, there are several options, and knowing that the M's aren't going to blow huge bucks on the draft (in spite of what Divish reports this morning), so long as they don't draft one of the guys I don't like ahead of one I do, I probably won't go too ballistic. There's talent to be had, for sure, and the only way I'm disappointed is if the M's go waaaaay cheap and pass up on highly-rated players for easy-sign overdrafts.

Just get it right.

Labels: draft, prospects, tough decisions

After years of waiting, I finally got to see Adam Moore in person tonight. Obviously Marc got a head start, and has posted some fantastic pictures here of both him and Michael Saunders -- the two guys I focused a lot of attention on with my cameras tonight. As per usual, I didn't stay for the whole game, so I missed the epic comeback in the 8th. I haven't sifted through all the photos yet, and Jason gets first dibs (I've already sent him several). But I wanted to post just one photo from the game tonight -- actually I shot this just before the game during warmups. Here's Adam in his catcher's gear just before taking his spot behind home plate. While I wasn't über-impressed with his bat tonight (from what I saw anyway), I do have a photo of him keeping the ball in front of him and blocking the ball very well. Since the guys didn't take BP (they landed in Seattle at around 2 p.m., or so I was told), I'm not surprised their bats were a little rusty.

Labels: catchers, Free Adam Moore, Photography, prospects, Tacoma Rainiers

Churchill reported recently on Prospect Insider that Austin Bibens-Dirkx was released from the M's organization. It was such a noteworthy move that I can't find it anywhere, other than on Churchill's site (and of course, that he's not on any of the major affiliates' rosters). Of course doing a little more digging and asking around, I find it buried here in the Baseball America transactions.

I must apologize to Austin. Evidently I failed in my duties as the "Free Austin!" campaign manager. I need someone to keep an eye on the Phillies' MiLB rosters just in case he shows up :-)

Site re-design coming, I think. I need to ramp up the noise for Adam Moore, who's back in AA to start the season because the M's can't decide what to do with Clement. Ugh.

Labels: Austin Bibens-Dirkx, bad decisions, minors, prospects, relief pitchers

It's early in the year, but the Rainiers rotation certainly looks impressive so far. Robert Rohrbaugh got his first start of the new season last night and threw 6 shut-out innings, allowing only 3 hits, no walks and getting 5 Ks. A fly-ball pitcher, Rohrbaugh might be expected to do well in April in the spacious confines of Cheney Stadium. But the wind was blowing out last night (or out to right center), but the Grizzlies simply couldn't get solid contact off of him.

Even the outfield fly balls were pop-ups, with Wlad calling off Chen for one and Hulett making the catch in front of Brent Johnson on another.
Ivan Ochoa was the only Grizzly who had a couple of good swings - he picked up a couple of singles on the night. Scott McClain squared up a couple of pitches on Rohrbaugh, but had a line-out and a fly out for his efforts.

Rohrbaugh is basically Ryan Feierabend if you take away 3 MPH on his fastball. As Feierabend's 'stuff' is not exactly eye-popping, that should tell you something about Rohrbaugh. The guy isn't just another in the long line of Jamie Moyer clones the M's drafted, he's trying to get guys out with Jamie's arsenal. Seriously. His FB was varied last night, but he threw one of them at 82 MPH. Moyer himself might throw faster than that in the 8th inning. He generally worked between 84-86, but got up in the high 80s occasionally and hit 90 one time.

All of this is to say that the reason Rohrbaugh is not well thought of in prospect circles is... valid. If Feierabend has little room for error, Rohrbaugh has none. And yet, the guy's been successful at every stop so far. My guess is that if he wants a real shot at the majors, he'll have to improve his command a bit. It's tough - get too much of the plate with an 84MPH fastball, and you'll get annihilated. Walk too many with an 84MPH fastball, and people will encourage you to explore different career options. He's been in the 2.5-3BB/9IP range historically, but last night's no-walk performance may be a great harbinger of improved command as he settles in at the AAA level.

A lot of people like to make fun of the Grizzlies line-up, and given that these are the guys who couldn't make the SF Giants MLB roster, there's a grain of truth there. But while the line-up isn't exactly littered with great MLB prospects, it's clearly not a bad AAA line-up. Scott McClain hit 31 HRs at this level last year, and hit at least 28 HRs in AAA five times (for four teams). He also hit 39 HRs for the Seibu Lions in NPB. You all know that Justin Leone's a quality AAA slugger, and OF John Bowker's coming off a year of .307/.363/.523 in the Eastern League last year (he's the closest they've got to a prospect). On paper, they may be a better AAA line-up than the Rainiers. The best on the Rainiers are better than the best on the Grizzlies, and clearly have better MLB prospects, but the Grizzlies have fairly impressive depth.

I mention this to give added context for Cesar Jimenez's jaw-dropping performance. Jimenez came in to start the seventh and promptly struck out the side on 12 pitches. He faced the heart of the order, and got Leone, McClain and Brett Harper (.296/.350/.500 last year in the eastern league) easily. He started the eighth by striking out Eliezer Alfonzo, then K'ing Bowker. Bowker was the only player to work the count and foul off a couple of pitches, but in the end he couldn't lay off a nasty change. Julio Cordido was the last man to face Jimenez, and actually managed to put the ball in play... a meek pop-up to 1B Bryan LaHair.

The left-handed Jimenez faced 4 righties and 2 lefties - the fact that his change-up is as tough on righties as lefties may actually hurt his chances of making a return to the majors; Jimenez isn't a LOOGY. He's done fine versus lefties so far, but he's not a George Sherrill or Arthur Rhodes type of pitcher. If he makes it, it'll have to be as a set-up guy who can get righties or lefties (sort of the role Ryan Rowland-Smith finds himself in...finally... for Seattle). With Eric O'Flaherty struggling, he may get a chance this year. Arthur Rhodes may be one place ahead in the queue, but Rhodes' health at this stage is always a question.

Jon Huber finished the game out by allowing a run on a hit, a walk and a wild pitch.

The offensive 'star' of this 2-1 victory was Wlad Balentien, who followed up his grand slam on Wednesday with a 2-4 performance last night. He knocked in the first run with a line drive smash double to left. He actually hit the ball so hard that he was very nearly thrown out at second; a neat slide helped him avoid the tag, but the ball beat him to the base handily. Wlad's going to be fine, and his slow start wasn't all that concerning to the R's.

Matt Tuiasosopo, on the other hand, continues to look a bit overmatched. He went 0-3, and is now 1-19 on the year. He struck out twice and popped up on the infield. I know Churchill at Prospect Insider is still high on him, so perhaps there's no need for panic, but as someone who's been a bit circumspect on Tui for years, uh, yeah, I'm a little worried. He's still young, but without some power, and without a better showing against high minors righties, it's going to be tough to stick as a corner defender. One thing he's shown in his MiLB career is a willingness to listen to coaching and a real aptitude for learning and improving. He's not someone who's gotten frustrated by some seriously frustrating spells in AA, and he's improved each year (particularly in plate discipline). I'm sure he'll get better, but he's got a long way to go.

Labels: Cesar Jimenez, Game reviews, MiLB Updates, minors, prospects, Robert Rohrbaugh, Tacoma Rainiers

Ryan Feierabend pitched one of his best games at the AAA level in yesterday's opening day game. 6IP, 0R, 4H, 3BB and 7Ks. Where'd this come from?

Well, it's not from any new pitches. He was his normal three-pitch self last night, with his FB just the same as it was last year - from 85 to touching 90, but mostly 87-88 or so. His change-up was around 78, which is what the pitchfx data shows.

So how does a guy with standard platoon splits shut down a decent line-up stacked with righties?


First, it looked like he used the change-up much more than the curve. That's actually pretty similar to his M.O. vs. righties in the big leagues, but it was noticeable that the curve was a show-me pitch that he'd leave off the plate. That willingness to work off the plate showed up both in his higher than normal walk total and in his very low SLG percentage against. Remember, this is the same guy who allowed righties to slug over .600 in the majors, and who allowed PCL righties to slug .463 against him in Tacoma last year.

So clearly, he was able to improve the deception on the change-up last night. It's either that or he's willing to use it a lot more. Ryan's pitchfx data show something interesting - he got swinging strikes (the type most likely to stay consistent from year to year) on 13.6% of his change-ups last year, and gave up a home run on only 1 of 206 pitches thrown. His fastball induced swinging strikes only 3.5% of the time, and he gave up 4 HRs in 352 pitches. He was in the strike zone about the same with both pitches - he threw called balls on roughly 34-35% of both FBs and Changes.

From these data, and from his experience giving up 9HRs in less than 50 IP, I'd say Ryan may be learning to trust his change-up a lot more, and to avoid giving the hitter a hitter's pitch even in 2-0, 3-1 counts. His FB isn't good enough to blow by people, and if he wants to be successful, he's going to have to use the change-up a ton, and he's going to have to put the FB on the corners. Sure, this is true for every pitcher. But Feierabend's start last night showed that he doesn't have to be a 2 BB/9IP pitcher to succeed; that approach may actually PREVENT him from succeeding. This isn't a case where he wasn't mixing his pitches before - he was. But the Cha Seung Baek path to (FIP) success isn't going to work here, so he's got to make a change (ha!). So far, so good.

The hitting star was Yung-Chi Chen, who put a charge into a Greg Smith pitch and pulled a double pretty high off the wall in left center. He also had a single and a successful-if-uneventful night in the field. I'm pulling for the guy. Nice photo of him in the Tribune's photo slide show here, and stay tuned here or at Prospect Insider for photos from last night - Positive Paul got some great shots.

Matt Tuiasosopo apparently looked great in BP, but looked absolutely lost in his first AAA AB (a strikeout). He came back with a couple of better ABs, but still looked a bit overmatched. I'm sure there was a lot of pressure on him as his parents and numerous siblings were in attendance - gotta be nice to play in Washington again for the first time since he was at Everett.

Labels: Cheney Stadium, minors, Opening Day 2008, pitching, prospects

Hey - I just noticed a new blog in town. One of my blog-o-sphere mateys, known as "etowncoug" and a few other folks have just opened shop over at Hardball Review. Etown/Brent has written a fine article on Jose Lopez, and honestly, I think we're sharing a lot of the same thoughts:

The long term fix to Lopez is not as simple as a change of scenery. Lopez needs find a way to hide his weaknesses. Waiting for a pitch that he can drive would be an excellent start. I am extremely skeptical of any player whose breakout ability depends so heavily on his pitch recognition ability to go from well below average to above average. This isn’t going to happen overnight and until this improves I see his ceiling as an average player.

Jose is one of two players that I believe have much more value to another club than they do the Mariners (the other being Brandon Morrow, who I believe will only be used as a bullpen arm in this organization, since they're not going to be patient enough to give him the 1-2 years in the minors that he would need to truly become an effective starter, and I don't believe Morrow's talented/polished enough to pull off becoming an effective starter over the winter and through spring training -- but I digres...). That doesn't mean they should trade him away just to trade him, like they did with Carlos Guillen and to a certain extent Rafael Soriano. But indeed, Lopez still has enough upside that his struggles in the second halves of 2006 and 2007 are just minor bumps in the road.

It's easy to forget that he's only 23 years old. There's still a lot of potential for him to mature into an above-average second baseman, but again -- as Brent mentions -- until he improves on his pitch recognition and becomes more selective on the pitches he tries to drive, he's not going to help the team with his bat. His glove certainly took some major strides forward, and he can still improve in that area of his game. His bat, though, is quite a ways behind. I believe he's talented enough to pull it together, but it may take more time than this organization is willing to give him.

Labels: Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, new blogs, prospects, trades

There. I said it. Notice the "AKA" change at the top, too.

I think pitchers like Rene Rivera, but the dude's hitting .180./253/.272. In AA. He's taking up a 40-man roster spot that could very likely be needed soon.

About a year ago, right after the 2006 MLB draft, I claimed Adam Moore as one of my new Adopt-a-players over at SportSpot. My comment then was "potentially the best bat taken by the M's in the draft," even though I really didn't know a whole lot about him. Yes, I recognize that High Desert's home park is offense-inflating. But from what I read from those who follow these things more closely, Moore is pretty likely to stick at catcher. From all my conversations w/Churchill, too, Moore is a good bet to actually become a real prospect, even calling him "The top candidate for sleeper prospect of the year" in a May Farm Report for the Seattle P-I. Dave Cameron has him, now, in his "Future Forty" (along with Austin Bibens-Dirkx, too :-)

After a blazing first half, where Moore had a .930 OPS -- roughly .886 on the road and 1.009 at home -- he's started out the two games in the second half on fire, too. While indeed the High Desert launching pad certainly has helped him, he actually has hit more HRs (and XBHs) on the road, and had more RBIs, too.

So, Bavasi/Looper/Mattox/Hunter -- free yourselves of the 40-man spot and, if you want, after he clears waivers and presuming you still want him in the system, move Rivera down a level to see if he could at least OPS .600 in High Desert. And free both Adam Moore and Austin Bibens-Dirkx from High Desert. They're probably both ready now.

Labels: "Free" campaigns, Adam Moore, prospects

You've seen the box score, or the recap in various places... and you know J will keep you up to date with boxes and stats. So I'll try to refrain from a play-by-play approach here.
The first in a series of rambling observations from venerable Cheney stadium:

1: Justin Lehr knows how to pitch. His pure stuff wasn't all that impressive, really - he used a high-80s fastball and a cutter to get downward movement on the ball and induce a flurry of ground balls. But it's sort of hard to believe that this guy was known for above average K-rates throughout his career. It was one day, and he was facing a pretty good line-up, and let's face it - he pitched quite well: 6IP 1R 3H 1BB 1K. He just wasn't what I'd expected. He's now had back to back impressive outings after his disastrous first relief appearance, so hopefully he's righted the ship and he can continue his poor man's Chien Ming Wang routine.

2: Long-time Morsels favorite Wladimir Balentien had a great home opener, with a sharply hit single to center his first time up, and then a majestic, towering solo home run leading off the 6th. I was sitting behind home plate, and thought the ball was hit too high to leave the park... the RiverCats outfielders knew immediately: neither the CF or LF took a step. I think the height threw me (and many others around me); I don't think I've ever seen a HR hit so high.
I remember Ryan Christianson hitting a wind-aided fly ball that came close, but that was more of an actual pop-up that got pushed over the RF fence. This was an absolute bomb, just to the left of the big scoreboard in left-center... I've used majestic, maybe I'll say it was Stargellian? Wlad also picked up a stolen base, and made a nice running catch of Hiram Bocachica's 10th innng drive up against the wall in right (at least someone could catch a baseball in the 10th).

3: Adam Jones looked good at the plate - the ability he learned late last year to fight off tough pitches (located FBs or good breaking stuff) was on display, as he had a number of good ABs, resulting in 2 hits and two walks. Scouts wondered about his defense last year, and he proved he could give you decent CF defense after just learning the position. Then, scouts wanted to see him control the strike zone more and even up his K:BB ratio a bit. So far, so good: he's got 6BBs and only 9Ks so far. We'll see if there's anything else the nay-sayers can point to in a few months. Nothing to report about his defense, as the GB-fest rendered him sort of superfluous. Jones too picked up a stolen base, his first of the year.

4: Eric O'Flaherty was straight dealing... he only had 1 K (he got Daric Barton on a sick slider, causing Barton to slam his helmet in disgust), but could've had more - his slider simply broke too much and fooled both the batter and umpire. JJ Furmaniak was doing that Jason Varitek thing - flinching away, then watching as the pitch broke right over the inner half of the plate (yes, I know Felix was doing that as a righty, and with a mid 90s FB, to a LH hitter. Felix is not fair.), but O'Flaherty couldn't get a call. That led to 2BBs in his 2 innings. He'll definitely be someone to watch; a LH reliever with a bit more stuff than Jake Woods (to say the least), but whose back probably won't allow him to pitch in long relief.

5: I miss Asdrubal Cabrera. Osvaldo Navarro was 0-4 with two shocking errors in the decisive 10th. I know, I know - it's one game, and the scouts love his D. But I miss the days of a slick fielding SS who could also take a walk (Navarro has 1 in 8 games, Cabrera has 3 in 5 so far for AA Akron).

6: Byron Embry is a large human. He looked a bit like ex-Rainier 1B/mountain Juan Thomas. That's gotta be somewhat intimidating. His delivery was somewhat reminiscent of Emiliano Fruto's, in that he almost short arms the ball. That might give him some deception, so we'll have to see if he gets more Ks than his pure stuff/velocity would suggest. He's been a little shaky with his command so far (hey, just like Fruto), but then that comment could be made about basically anyone in the Rainiers' pen.

7: Jon Huber isn't exactly proving the M's wrong for sending him to AAA this spring. It's kind of tough to pin the loss on him, as the Rainiers team-wide defensive collapse ruined all of his best pitches (turning routine GBs into ugly, ugly errors). But he's still a far cry from where he was with the M's last year. The lead-off single was a legit line-drive, and then he walked Charles Thomas to bring his OPS *up* to .367. As mentioned above, Hiram Bocachica hit a screaming line drive to the wall for the first out, and Huber also uncorked a WP. Coming on the heels of his meltdown vs. Fresno on April 10th, it's becoming something of a pattern. Perhaps it's just the cold; he started last year in the Texas league (and was noticeably better in the second half last year too...hmm).

8: Have teams picked up a 'tell' in Rainiers pitchers' moves to first/home? Everyone's running wild on Rob Johnson, which is just weird. The RiverCats went 3-3 off RJ last night, and that's been going on a lot. Not sure what the problem is, but coupled with his 3-base error, he's in a real funk on the defensive end (maybe his first?). I wonder if the pressure of competing with Jeff Clement is getting to him, or if the stolen base thing is the product of the Rainiers coaches telling their staff to not worry about holding guys on. It's just such a turnaround from the beginning of last year when Johnson was throwing guys out left and right.

9: The Schlegel group made some changes to the stadium and the experience this year, and... so far, I'm not exactly thrilled about it. The bleachers on the 3b side were removed, along with the patio deck. Replacing them is a three-tiered concrete monstrosity known as 'party decks.' I have been to all manner of parties, dear reader, but I simply cannot think of a less festive atmosphere than an unmarked slab of concrete. Perhaps it's edgy to combine the experience of minor league baseball with a dash of 'prison recreation area.' Inspired by the Rainiers' creative branding, I've renamed my driveway the Party Zone, and the patch of overgrown ivy between my house and my neighbor shall now be known as Area FiftyFun.
Also, they've cut back a bit on the draft beer selection, turned the nice little bar under the 3b side reserved stands into a private area for 'Gold Club' members only, and the wait-staff who would go get beer and food for fans in box seats are gone. Hmm.
Hey, if the 'Gold Club' and the 'Party Decks' keep baseball in Tacoma, I'm down with it. I'm trying to think about these...changes strategically, and I acknowledge that Tacoma's park makes turning a profit a little tough. When PCL teams from Memphis to Sacramento are in larger towns to begin with, and then build MLB-stadia-in-miniature, you can bet that the Rainiers and their owners have to come up with new ways to get more revenue. But it needs to be mentioned that the ballpark experience fell a bit short last night, and that had nothing to do with the weater.


That's all I've got. Anyone notice anything else about yesterday's game that was particularly intriguing?

Labels: Cheney, minors, prospects, Rainiers

So, Churchill's got a nice scouting report on Austin Bibens-Dirkx up on Prospect Insider. Check out that awesome photo, too. I wonder where that came from. Hmmm... Heh.

Bigger news today, though, is that my e-mails and prodding likely helped push Dave Cameron to add him to his Future Forty. Okay, well, I doubt I had anything to do with it, seriously, since Dave's standards are so incredibly high (and rightfully so) that my opinion is probably 99,999th on the list of folks he's likely discussed things with to put together his list. Still, it's nice to see him come around on Austin at least a little bit, and recognize him at least a little more as I do -- maybe not a potential superstar like Felix or Jones or whatnot, but rather a guy who likely will help a major-league club greatly by filling a smaller role -- and doing it very well, if not at a star level for that role.

I'm OK with thinking that relief pitchers are dime-a-dozen interchangable parts. I also believe in the concept of "relief aces" that can consistently stop the bleeding or slam the door in tight contests. Whether or not the door-slamming happens in the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th inning, it's a pretty important role either way, and a team likely needs at least two of these types of players in the bullpen, and one of them is most likely the closer. These types of players are more expensive and less dime-a-dozen. Rafael Soriano was one of these types, and trading him for a border-line league-average starting pitcher was a horrible decision that could have some serious long-term consequences on the Mariners pitching staff.

But what about those guys in between? While I'm a HUGE George Sherrill fan, even I recognize that he's not quite the relief ace that Soriano and Putz were in 2006. When I argued last year that he should inherit the closer title, it was because he's less of a relief ace than those other two, and with Hargrove being a bit of an old-schooler, he'd be better served having the weakest of the three top relievers in the "Hey, we have a 3-run lead here in the 7th -- let's get another guy out there and save our closer for the 9th..." role. He's shown some struggles vs. righties in the majors (despite not having too much of a problem vs. righties in the minors), and I believe he's been pretty much pigeonholed into the "LOOGY" class of pitchers. I still think he could develop into a relief ace, given more of an opportunity. But while that opportunity is waning, his opportunity to have a decent MLB career is improving. Even if he remains as a "LOOGY" I'm quite confident he'll be one of the best in the league in that role. If that's the only opportunity that he gets to have a job in the majors, and never makes it into the closer's role (hence the "Free George Sherrill" campaign still going alive and well...), I'm quite certain he'll take that 8 days a week and twice on Sundays.

So, while the "Free George Sherrill" campaign is still alive, I'm also laying the grassroots for the next MarinersMorsels campaign: "Free Austin Bibens-Dirkx!" When I saw him pitch in Tacoma, and talked to folks like Dave Cameron and several others right after that, I discovered that Austin was probably a guy that would fly under the radar a bit, and would, like George, have to work a little harder than guys like Morrow, Butler, Tillman (all drafted higher in the 2006 draft) to earn the spotlight and have a little more blue-collar route to the big leagues. If he had a chance to even make it to the bigs at all...

It seems Austin's performance in the pros thus far has already caught several eyes. Hey. I let the player do all the work, and I take all the credit :-)

I kid, I kid...

Still, here's to hoping that Austin's K rates stay steady. He'll need 'em in the matchbox that is High Desert. In his two outings so far, he's got 3Ks in 3 IPs. I'm awaiting some reports on his scouted velocity, and some more time to see his splits vs. lefties (although, somewhat strangely, it seems like he's had more issues vs. same-handed hitters, according to Churchill's report). Those are two evidence points that will really convince the folks in the suits what to do with him. His 2006 numbers suggest that he's very much a pitcher -- and as Jason captured what Austin said himself:

“I know how to pitch,” he said. “Not just throw. I had to learn how to pitch first, because I didn’t throw very hard until my sophomore year in college.”

Indeed, he's shown to me that he's moreso a 'pitcher' than a 'thrower' -- being a side-armer, too, that's important. But if he's got his velocity up in the mid-90's consistently, and can show he's got excellent command of his pitches, then watch out. He'll soar quickly through the system.

I'm a little nervous that I may have seen his only appearance in a Tacoma uniform. If he has a decent year this year, he could very well do most of his development in AA, and then jump right up to Seattle in September, and stick around for good in 2008.



Free Austin Bibens-Dirkx!

Labels: "Free" campaigns, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, minors, prospects, relief pitchers

I've been giving this situation a lot more thought lately, and I've come to be less concerned about what the M's do with 2006 first-round draft pick Brandon Morrow. If he's anything like the type of pitcher I think he is, he'll handle whatever situation the M's throw at him just fine.

The concern seems to be that the M's are very strongly considering breaking camp with Morrow in the bullpen. A lot of this decision seems to hinge on J. J. Putz' health. Those who disagree with this decision have several concerns:

1) The M's are not going to contend in 2007. Morrow's 2007 innings are far less important to the team than his 2013 (or -14, -15, -16, since he has three years before he has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft) innings would be. You don't want to get his arbitration clock started too soon.

2) Having Morrow's young pro career start out in the 'pen would stunt his development as a starter. He needs to get his career established and get stretched out as a starter.

3) Putting him in the 'pen furthers the common discussion that the M's drafted Morrow all along with thoughts of moving him into the 'pen. You don't waste your first round, 5th-overall, draft pick on a relief pitcher. Especially since two potential front-line starters like Miller and Lincecum were available. If Morrow shows to be very effective in the 'pen, would it be easy for the M's to move him back into the rotation? Looking at what the M's did with Soriano, I'm not so sure...

There are other reasons, like the feeling that Morrow needs the time to develop a third pitch to round out his arsenal as a starter, but you get the main picture there.

Those are all legitimate gripes, as far as I'm concerned. Every once in awhile, though, a player seems to not quite fit into the mold that we like to try and fit him into. I honestly believe that Morrow could be one of these types of players. Yes, his innings this spring have been, as Churchill puts it, against guys who wear #88. But since he's coming out of college, and a bit older than a lot of other draft picks, he's further along and his mechanics are more well-developed than other guys. If his stuff is good enough to get the #88-level guys out consistently, then it should be worthy of at least a look out of the 'pen. It seems to be pretty much consensus that Morrow's a lot closer to the majors, and that he could probably pitch out of the Seattle bullpen right now.

With the trade of Soriano, and with Putz having some setbacks, the M's have a very strong need for a dominant reliever. Now, too, Hargrove appears to be losing patience with my guy George. I'm sure George will bounce back, and I'm sure he's doing all he can to stay on track. But it doesn't take away from the concern that the M's bullpen probably has as many, if not more, question marks than the rotation. I'm not sure how many leads the 'pen will have to protect, especially with Richie Sexson flailing away in the cleanup spot, but it's still something that you'd like to see a little more settled with a week and a half of spring training left. It seems that they're somewhat serious in giving Morrow some consideration for a spot in the 'pen. If they give Sean White back to Atlanta, that would free up a 40-man spot.

While I wouldn't be disappointed if Morrow were in the bullpen (I do think that even with his limited pro experience, he'd do well out of the Seattle 'pen), I'd like to see Morrow take the Jered Weaver route. Get a decent amount of starts in AAA (or, AA) and then see where he's at in a few months. Let him complete one season in the minors, and bring him to Seattle in September. If the M's are in contention, and they need some pitching help to push them over the top, then give Morrow the call.

I've changed my mind on Morrow a lot since draft day. I've been one to be extra concerned that the M's drafted him as a reliever. I've also been concerned about drafting a guy who had significant shoulder issues during his college days. After talking with some folks, I'm way less concerned with those things.

Edit 3/23 -- I like Dave Cameron's thoughts better. Sounds like we're on the same page here, too.

Labels: Brandon Morrow, prospects, tough decisions