Mariners Morsels - aka "Free Adam Moore and Rich Poythress! (George Sherrill is FREE!)"

If I didn't have enough of a reason to hate the Carlos Silva signing, I do now. It's not good enough for him to steal nearly $50 million from the Mariners -- noooooo. Now he goes and steals #52 from George. Ugh.

I will never ever ever call him "CS52".

//Wonders how good George would look in Orioles Orange...
///No, GS52 hasn't been traded, yet. At least I haven't heard anything, yet. I just can't call him "GS52" anymore without confusing even more people (and certainly "GS" looks a lot like "CS" so I don't want to even think about being misinterpreted...)...
////BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Labels: bad decisions, Carlos Silva, George Sherrill, GS52

Glad to know the M's are still the stupid team I somehow know and love...

Labels: bad decisions, pitching., Ticket prices

Well, it appears that Bavasi survived the Winter Meetings without completely devastating the team. Of course, there's still time, but I'll consider this progress. In fact, I'll give him a pretty big pat on the back! I'm a little excited about the minor move he made today -- grabbing 33-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey from the Rule 5 Draft:



As Super-Sleuth marc w found and linked in the comments on USSM, Jamie Burke was his teammate in 2006.

In spite of rumors, and his name being thrown around, too, George Sherrill is still a Mariner. He's due his first arbitration (as a "Super Two"), and since Bavasi has yet to actually take a player to arbitration, I expect a 2 or 3 year deal, like those given to Putz, Lopez, and Betancourt. I'd LOVE to see the dollar figures similar to what those other guys got, but everything I've heard isn't quite that high. I'm thinking 3 years, $6 million is probably fair, but I'd be surprised if the M's gave him that.

Oh, and I get asked a lot what I think about the possibility of George being traded. I think I speak for everyone w/the "Free George Sherrill" campaign when I say that I'm actually OK with it. Ultimately the campaign will be successful when George is given a proper role on a team who appreciates his talent and utilizes his skill as either an important setup man (read: NOT as a LOOGY) or a closer. We hope it's with the Mariners, but with J.J. Putz entrenched in the closer's role and the M's hesitation a) to call him up in the first place and b) give him consistent, increasingly-more-challenging at-bats versus righties, I'm not convinced it's his best organization. And, with some of the contract numbers I've heard, it's clear they don't want to pay him properly either...

If he's a part of the package that ultimately lands a guy like Santana or Bedard, then I'd be happy. Although, wait. I don't want him exiled to an even worse organization than the Mariners -- Baltimore -- but they're in need of a closer, and might actually use him properly. And the commute for his parents in Tennessee would be much easier, too. But that his name is being mentioned in those trade packages -- for players of that quality -- is definitely encouraging. Indeed, other teams may see his value more than the Mariners do. Ultimately, if George is happy, I'm happy. Yeah, I'm sure he's happy to be on an MLB roster, making an MLB salary, but his goals are bigger than that, and he's better than just "roster filler."

Labels: Bill Bavasi, George Sherrill, knuckleballers, R. A. Dickey, Rule 5 Draft, Winter meetings

Look, I realize you've got a tough job to do. You've undoubtedly got pressure from the suits above you to walk away from Nashville with some starting pitching, if not a few other pieces. Dude, though, don't pull what you did last year, and trade a valuable asset for someone who was just about to be non-tendered (and, hence, available for only the inked dollar amount on a contract, not a valuable player). Please Please Please learn from your mistakes. Just because Plans A, B, C, and D don't work out -- DON'T PANIC!!!! Be patient, pave some in-roads, really decide what it is you want and make a reasonable deal when you're not downing drinks in the bar...

There's still time to evaluate the market and figure out who you really want. Edwin Jackson is a good idea -- but think about what Tampa wants, and what fits best. While Wlad might be a bit much, it's not completely unreasonable. Don't just get rid of Jose Lopez to get rid of him. Ben Broussard, too. You already messed up with the Guillen situation, although I'm sure the folks above you probably influenced that decision quite heavily.

Kick the tires some more on a few guys -- Bartolo Colon, for example. Sweeten the pot on Santana -- think creatively.

But please, O please do NOT make another Horacio Ramirez-level mistake...

Labels: Bill Bavasi, offseason thoughts, roster building, Winter meetings

Seeing Ichiro raise the 12th Man flag at Qwest Field yesterday, especially with the way he exploded in joy, waiving the towel, and really cheering hard, reminded me of how thankful I am that the M's don't have to resolve that question this offseason.



They have a lot to worry about, but, thankfully, Ichiro's status isn't on that list.

Yeah, things probably won't go like we all want this offseason. I'm not sure how many people really wanted the status quo with McLaren and Bavasi. Still, the status quo with Ichiro is just fine by me. Things could be a lot worse...

Labels: Ichiro, offseason thoughts, the power of positive thinking

Hey - I just noticed a new blog in town. One of my blog-o-sphere mateys, known as "etowncoug" and a few other folks have just opened shop over at Hardball Review. Etown/Brent has written a fine article on Jose Lopez, and honestly, I think we're sharing a lot of the same thoughts:

The long term fix to Lopez is not as simple as a change of scenery. Lopez needs find a way to hide his weaknesses. Waiting for a pitch that he can drive would be an excellent start. I am extremely skeptical of any player whose breakout ability depends so heavily on his pitch recognition ability to go from well below average to above average. This isn’t going to happen overnight and until this improves I see his ceiling as an average player.

Jose is one of two players that I believe have much more value to another club than they do the Mariners (the other being Brandon Morrow, who I believe will only be used as a bullpen arm in this organization, since they're not going to be patient enough to give him the 1-2 years in the minors that he would need to truly become an effective starter, and I don't believe Morrow's talented/polished enough to pull off becoming an effective starter over the winter and through spring training -- but I digres...). That doesn't mean they should trade him away just to trade him, like they did with Carlos Guillen and to a certain extent Rafael Soriano. But indeed, Lopez still has enough upside that his struggles in the second halves of 2006 and 2007 are just minor bumps in the road.

It's easy to forget that he's only 23 years old. There's still a lot of potential for him to mature into an above-average second baseman, but again -- as Brent mentions -- until he improves on his pitch recognition and becomes more selective on the pitches he tries to drive, he's not going to help the team with his bat. His glove certainly took some major strides forward, and he can still improve in that area of his game. His bat, though, is quite a ways behind. I believe he's talented enough to pull it together, but it may take more time than this organization is willing to give him.

Labels: Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, new blogs, prospects, trades

Well, except for a few teams, the 2007 is officially over. The Hot Stove League, then, for the Mariners is in full effect. With that, I have a few questions...

1) If A-Rod opts out of his contract, will Texas still be on the hook? My guess is that they won't be. That may not be good for the Mariners. If he ends up in Anaheim, it could be a double-whammy...

2) So, Jeff Pentland is the only coach to survive McLaren's scythe. What exactly is it about Jeff Pentland that deemed him worthy of being spared? Will he remain as hitting coach, or will he slide over to another coaching spot?

3) Where in the heck will Bavasi find starting pitching? He's not thinking about what USSM and other folks are thinking -- tapping into Tampa Bay's resources. I can almost guarantee that. Can he make a worse move than the one made for Horacio Ramirez? Anything's possible...

Labels: free agency, offseason thoughts, questions

So, GS52's career Save #4 comes on the hand of a baserunning blunder similar to Babe Ruth's 1926 World Series ending boo-boo.

I'll take it...

Labels: career stats, George is awesome, George Sherrill, relief pitchers, saves, team victory

Congrats on Save #3, George! Not that the save stat is hugely meaningful, but I'll take a 3K performance, leading to your third career save as a nice gift for my birthday tonight. Here's to many more of each (saves for you and birthdays for me) for us in the future!

Labels: George is awesome, George Sherrill, saves, winning

I'm not nearly as smart as a lot of people in regards to baseball stats, but this statement of opinion from a local beat reporter (who I actually have a ton of respect for) always always always grates on me:

So, no sympathy vote for Santana. He'll have to raise his win total substantially...to have a legit Cy Young shot.

I mean, yeah, Cy Young voters look at win totals and all, but still, I'll never be able to figure out how a pitcher can substantially raise his win totals. Unless that pitcher hits like Albert Pujols, and manages, too, so that he can put himself into games where he's facing Jake Woods as opposed to Jake Peavy, the pitcher has absolutely no control over his win/loss total. Not even the ace-est of aces pitches very many shutouts these days, and a pitcher is considered pretty much HOF material if he only surrenders 1-2 runs in 6-7 innings every game. In the AL especially, pitchers have absolutely no control over the number of runs their offenses score. None. Zip. Nil. Nada. So, even if a pitcher throws 245 innings (35 starts at 7 innings a piece over an entire season) and has an ERA of 1.28 (1 run/game), he'd still have to have his team score over two runs a game for 57% of those games to reach twenty. Behind a VERY streaky, inconsistent offense (as the M's have shown all year), that can be a daunting task. Conversely, too, a pitcher who gives up 5 runs in 5-6 innings consistently can also win 20+ games if he's got an offense that scores 6 runs in those games.

I'm using extremes to make a point, sure. But it's still clear in my mind that a pitcher has very very, very, very little, if any at all, control over his win/loss record. Yeah, generally, a bad pitcher will pile up the losses, and a good pitcher will pile up the wins. But you can't tell if a pitcher's bad or good by those piles...

Labels: confusion..., dumb statements, meaningless stats, pitching

Just got this link from Churchill, who also added it to his (much more widely visited) site, but you have to check out Austin Dirkx' newly-released CD. I'm currently listening to the demo playlist, and from what I'm hearing, I love it!

Unlike a lot of other artists whose CDs you wonder why you've bought, when really you may like only 2 or 3 songs, if you're lucky, and the rest of the CD is filler that pretty much all sounds the same, my initial impression of this CD is that while there songs that sound similar, there's enough variety to keep me interested.

Definitely a CD I'd listen to while sipping some Perpetual Merlotion -- perhaps even while working on some photographs. I definitely need to add "Fly Away" to my MP3 player. I think it's my favorite on the CD (that I've listened to on the demo -- I'll order the CD myself when I get home). But, of course, I'm a Simon & Garfunkel freak, and Austin's style has that sort of "chill" feeling that S&G music has. It's a bit raw, certainly, but Austin's definitely got musical talent. I'd grab my bass or keys and jam w/him any day...

Labels: Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Austin is awesome, CDs, music, talent

What. The. Heck???

Is there something wrong with JJ Putz that the team isn't letting out?

Rick White is not a major league quality pitcher, let alone one that can be counted on in a high-leverage situation. He proved that with the Vlad Guerrero at-bat. He proved it again tonight with a game-losing bases-loaded walk. There's no way he should've pitched tonight, especially in that situation.

I had high hopes for Johnny Mac. I gave him a break for making his managerial debut in historically unique and challenging circumstances. But now, in the middle of a pennant race, when he's been Lou's sounding board during MANY pennant races, I'm cutting him no more slack.

The only excuse for bringing in White in the situations he was brought in over the last couple games (last night was probably OK -- after the game was well out of hand) is if JJ Putz is injured. Even still, Rick White has proven his value -- it's as the top player on the DFA list, followed by Horacio Ramirez.

I mean John McLaren can't be THAT big of an idiot. Can he???

Labels: Booooooo, bullpen, DFA, John McLaren, Losses, Managers, relief pitchers, struggles, stupid managing

Robert Rohrbaugh continued his successful run through the PCL on the 26th, giving up 2 runs in 6 innings against the Portland Beavers. Since his ERA's now safely under 3, it may be worth discussing his arsenal/approach.

Rohrbaugh, a 7th rounder out of Clemson, uses a well-located (usually) fastball that sits from the mid to high 90s. In this start, he was everywhere from 82-89 with his fastball. In the early innings, he was very successful at placing it on the corners. He had zero command of his offspeed offerings, resulting in 4 walks in those 6 innings (he's usually something of a low walks/low K guy).
The key to his success is something of a deceptive delivery. While someone like Sherrill uses his arm to hide the ball - and thus get a lot of Ks despite so-so to slightly above average velocity - Rohrbaugh uses his body to deceive hitters. Think of the first part of Tim Lincecum's delivery, where his trunk turns a bit and his throwing hand drops below his waist. The second part of the delivery isn't like Lincecum's at all (whose is?), but that body turn means the ball pops out of nowhere at the end of Rohrbaugh's delivery. This hasn't manifested itself in eye-popping K/9 numbers, but when Rohrbaugh's on, he gets a lot of pop-ups.
What's interesting about Rohrbaugh is his month-to-month splits, both this year and in the past. At the beginning of last year, Rob started in the Cal League, and was an even fly-ball/ground-ball pitcher. As the year went on, he became more of a GB pitcher. The same pattern held at his next stop, in San Antonio, only this time he was only even for one month. This year, he started out as a fly-baller, beforing reverting to his GB tendencies in the month before his promotion. Also, his walks dropped as the year went on. In Tacoma, his walks have again dropped each month, but he's not K'ing many either.
In the majors, he's probably an extreme pitch to contact pitcher who may start off getting a lot of fly balls, but the degree to which he's able to get grounders...that's less clear. Still, he's piqued a lot of interest given his fast start in AAA.

In other news, Baseball Prospectus produced a fascinating list of the teams that have blown the most 3-run leads in MLB history. Tied for #1 - the 1998 Seattle Mariners. I bring up this historical tidbit because in many ways, the '98 M's are the mirror image of this year's crew. That team blew so many leads because its achilles heel was a gut-churning bullpen that included full-seasons from Heathcliff Slocumb and Bobby Ayala. The latter was 1-10 with a HoRam-esque 7.29 ERA. These two 'leading lights' were ably assisted by Paul Spoljaric and Bob Wells, who chipped in with 83 innings of 6+ RA 'pitching.' This meant that despite two starters with sub-4 ERAs (plus Randy Johnson, who was at 4.33), and an offense that scored 859 runs, the team finished 76-85 - despite a pythagorean W/L of 81-80. I have personal memories of that team - as it turns out, typical ones. The first game I ever took my wife too was this one, in which Ken Cloude's best ever MLB game was ruined by Bobby Ayala's meltdown in the 9th. Against Kevin Stocker and the D-rays. The next game we went to was this one, in which the M's nearly blew a 9-1 lead - holding on to beat the Sox 11-10. Bob Wells and Mike Timlin were the culprits this time, with Robin Ventura hitting a grand slam in the 9th, and the Sox putting the tying run in scoring position with only one out. Suffice it to say, it was a nerve-wracking season for M's fans.
This year's team lacks the 1-2-3 punch of Moyer/Fassero/RJ, and a line-up with the best SLG percentage in the AL, but its strength is its bullpen. Everyone's talked a lot about the M's 'pen, and its role in the M's unexpected success - I wonder if it'll change the amount of resources teams deploy on its bullpens. Interesting if a patched-together pen made up of MiLB vets like Green and Putz, plus indie-leaguer George Sherrill is used as a data point to suggest that teams should spend *more* on their pens.

One more thing, the mysterious HR/preventing skill that Washburn had? Yeah, that's disappearing fast. Miguel Batista as the M's most consistent starter? Not so much. Jeff Weaver as lion-in-winter, rejuvenated career success story? Ouch. If the M's are going to make the playoffs, an almost unprecedented percentage of the credit for that fact will go to the pen. This team is *weird*. And I love it.

The Rainiers welcomed back two familiar faces today - Cha Seung Baek and Wladimir Balentien.

Baek got the start, and gave up a run in the first on a ground ball single to right. Balentien had a very good shot to get Brady Clark at the plate, but his throw...um, sucked. Hey, he's rusty. In the second, Wlad made amends - he tied it up with a ground ball fielder's choice to score Bryan LaHair.

B aek ran into some trouble in the 5th, loading the bases on a double, a walk and a texas league single to right. At only 59 pitches, the R's pulled the plug. I didn't check the radar, so I think the most likely explanation is that Baek was on a pitch count - he ended one shy of 60. Coming in with one out and the bases loaded.... John Parrish! You never really get rid of pitchers like Parrish, you only hope to contain them somewhere in your minor league system. Despite a severe command problem, Parrish came on with no place to put Paul MacAnulty. MacAnulty apparently felt charitable and swung at a 3-2 pitch around eyebrow level for the second out. The next hitter, Jack Cassel, lined a pitch that LaHair snagged at first (and hey, as much crap as LaHair takes from the big M's 'spect watchers, let me just say this: he's a good defensive first baseman). Nice work, Parrish!

Parrish gave up a run in the 6th on a double, a single, a sac fly, two walks and a groundout. There's the John Parrish M's fans have come to expect.

Brad Thomas came on in the 7th and was absolutely lights out through the rest of the game. In his 3 innings, he gave up 1 hit, 1 walk and struck out 2, including one of the top hitters in the PCL, Brian Myrow.

Balentied finished 1-3 with a walk, a single and an RBI.
Baek went 4 1/3, giving up 5h 1R 1BB 1K. Parrish got the win and Thomas the 3 inning save.

* Robert Rohrbaugh continues to impress, throwing 7 innings of 1R ball this week. His own error scored a run, preventing him from matching Jorge Campillo's 7 shutout innings against Sacramento.
* Speaking of Campillo, the scouting reports are right: His fastball really is only 84-86 MPH. Score one for Dave Cameron, who's been suspicious of a righty who throws mid 80s, tops. Fair enough. His command is impeccable, and he's going to get a call up this September. But he's probably not a long term bet to replace HoRam. Rohrbaugh...well, we'll see. Rob's FB is a bit better, and he's a lefty. His approach seemed to be Washburn-esque this week - throwing well located fastball after well-located fastball, keeping a very good River Cats team off balance. That approach may prove disastrous in the bigs, but who knows. Washburn's approach, on paper, should be disastrous too.
* With Balentien back, and Charlton Jimerson raking, the R's again have a legitimately good AAA outfield. Jeremy Reed is still hitting too - he's at .321/.387/.464 on the month. Good, but not as good as...
* Nick "Freakin'" Green, who's hitting .341/.406/.560 for August. Green went 2-4 with yet another homer tonight. Green was brought up in an LL thread, with a number of people thinking that his hot streak might prove valuable for the M's, esp. given Jose Lopez's struggles. I've consistently said that he's roster-filler, a minor leaguer who had a sub .300 OBP in the Pittsburgh system this year, and a guy who really crapped the bed in his one MLB starting opportunity with Tampa Bay a few years ago. But man, this streak is something else. I'm down with BABIP theory as much as anyone, but holy balls is this guy hitting the ball hard every time. Given the recent USSM discussion on hot streaks, my intellectual side thinks it's silly to expect anything other than his career marks going forward (and those career averages are fairly nasty). But man is it cool to see him come up to bat these days.
* Mike Morse hopefully broke out of a mini-slump (.195 ave. in the past 10 games) with a double down the LF line tonight. He's still a fairly good option as a bench bat for an MLB team, though with Bloomquist's career year, it's pretty clear that opportunity's going to come somewhere else.
* Dave Cameron's got a post up advocating that the M's sign ex-Rainier Brett Tomko, who was DFA'd by the Dodgers. I don't mind the move, but more as insurance in case Baek's return hits a snag. Cameron thinks Tomko is head and shoulders better than Baek, I think the opposite. What do you think? xFIP's with me, the radar guns/scouting reports are with Cameron. This may depend on how you approach a question like this. If you need an out pitch, Baek will not impress you. If you rely heavily on results (or command), then Baek's a better bet. An interesting question, and one with no wrong answer other than 'Horacio Ramirez.'
* Sean White is still technically rehabbing in Tacoma, but I think at this point it's safe to say that whatever 'velocity spike' in the Arizona Fall League led the M's to pick this guy never made it out of Peoria. White's been between 89-92 with his FB in Tacoma, far below his reported 96+ in the fall. He never came close to that with the M's, at least not that I remember. He's an intriguing pitcher, in that he gets a ton of ground balls. But he's just not the guy the front office hyped when they made the trade/rule 5 selection to get him.

M's win again. Unbelievable. This is one of the strangest good teams in recent memory. On the plus side, they're obviously better than the '05 White Sox and '06 Cardinals. On the down side... what? Vidro/Weaver/Batista are key newcomers? Despite three incoming rotation members having lower ERA+ marks than the 3 guys they replaced (who most people thought were terrible). The DH has a Tyner-esque ISO. Felix has been very good, but both injured and also not what we expected after his blazing start. Yes, the bullpen has been almost as good as the White Sox magic-in-a-bullpen crew (Neal Cotts? Cliff Pollitte? Really?), but the offense has carried the team in August. I... I give up trying to figure it out, I'm just enjoying it.

Horacio Ramirez has made sure that discussions about the M's 5th rotation spot are fairly common. Ryan Feierabend hasn't exactly excelled in that role, and while many fans have talked about bringing Robert Rohrbaugh up, many M's insiders (incl. USS Mariner) have cautioned that his stuff simply isn't MLB quality.
The forgotten man in a lot of these discussions is Jorge Campillo. Well, Jorge's doing what he can to make sure his name is included in the never-ending list of guys who could do better than HoRam. With 7 scoreless innings today, Campillo dropped his RA to 3.4 - and he didn't have his best stuff. Despite missing consistently with his change, and despite lowering his WHIP to peg Lou Merloni (yes, it was on purpose), Campillo consistently got out of trouble by getting the first man, and by limiting the extra-base hit. Campillo has pretty sizeable home/road splits, so I should caution that how he's looked in Tacoma is not necessarily how he's looked away, but hey - Tacoma's a decent proxy for Safeco. And let's cut to the chase: I'm much more comfortable with the M's giving Jorge a shot than paying $20 million to give an aged Jose Contreras a shot. Do you need a back-up plan? Of course. But Campillo is pitching his way into this conversation, despite long odds after his injury and removal from the 40 man roster (thankfully, the 40 man roster isn't really a concern with a couple open spots, and with the rosters expanding soon).
The knock on Campillo has been his, well, Rohrbaugh-level stuff. And it's true; he generally doesn't get tons of strike-outs. But if you've followed Cha Seung Baek (or Carlos Silva), you know that there's a place at the back of an MLB rotation for a guy who severely limits walks. Campillo's been quite stingy with the free pass at home (1.41/9 coming into today), and compensates for his lack of an outpitch to righties by going for the strikeout more against lefty hitters. I think his weird reverse-platoon splits (at least as far as strikeouts go) is one of the reasons people underrate him. It's easy to say it's a statistical fluke, but he's K'd more lefties every single year he's been in the US. At some point, you've got to say it's part of his arsenal, or at least his approach, to go for the K against lefties and to put it in play against righties.

Jose De La Cruz (AKA the Aircraft Carrier) made things interesting by giving up 2 runs in the last 2 innings, and putting the tying run on 3rd in the 9th, but he induced the game ending pop-out from Nick Blasi and picked up the save. Campillo struck out 7 in 7 innings, to go with 3 BBs and just 4 hits.

Um. Hai.

While I've also noticed how badly Jose Lopez is struggling at the plate recently -- so much so that I've argued with some pretty smart baseball people that it's not entirely illogical to experiment with having Jose Vidro playing second base defensively -- today isn't the day to experiment with that. It's NOT the day to punt infield defense for the sake of any potential offensive gain, when you've got a groundballer like Felix on the mound.

One of my arguments is that as long as you pay attention to the pitcher that's on the mound and see that he's more of an extreme flyballer, the number of balls that Vidro would have to field would decrease, therefore lessening the risk of Vidro missing a ball that Lopez would've gotten to. Well, it's clear to me that you have other things you're paying attention to -- and, well, ignoring...

Not only that, but you're also decreasing the defense quality at third base, by replacing Adrian Beltre with Willie Bloomquist. Unless Adrian's hurting, it's probably a bad idea to give him the night off. I could make some argument for getting Willie's bat into the lineup -- heck, it might even make sense to have him play second. But third base? Taking Adrian out? Ugh.

Please tell Felix to strike everyone out tonight, and be choosy with his fastball.

KTHXBYE!!!

Labels: defense, Felix Hernandez, John McLaren, Jose Lopez, Jose Vidro, stupid managing

While I was away from the TV yesterday, mostly, watching Joey's final track meet of the season, I was able to 'watch' the game on my cell phone, thanks to the WEP version of GameCast. I was somewhat surprised that Mac left George in for the 9th, when the M's tacked on two more runs in the top of the inning and closed the door on a save opportunity for JJ. I knew that GS52 would've been eligible for the save had he been left in during the 9th, and I was both shocked and happy that it happened.

It was his longest outing since April 18th. Three K's and one walk (and on the GameCast on my cell phone, the AB with the walk was very questionable -- there appeared to be at least one strike that was called a ball, based on the graphic GameCast K zone. I'll have to go back to the game thread reactions to see if anyone commented on that pitch. It wouldn't surprise me to hear from Sid on this issue. Heh.

But whether or not it was a "vultured" save, I'll take it, and congratulate George on his second career save. I know there are more meaningful stats, sabermetrically, but saves mean a lot for player contracts, so huzzah!

What a fine season this lefty's having!

Labels: bullpen, career stats, George is awesome, George Sherrill, pitching, relief pitchers, saves, team victory, winning

As of 9 a.m. on Wednesday the 8th of August, I still have yet to watch Barry's 756th home run. If I refuse to turn on the TV, does that mean that HR will never have existed? If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it still make a sound?

While I even took space on this here blog to advocate the Mariners signing Barry Bonds before the 2007 season, I wasn't thrilled with the idea. I just tried to play devil's advocate for a minute to see if there was any logical reason why the M's would consider signing Bonds -- and why he might consider playing in Seattle.

How many other players, historically, have had their career average stats improve THIS much after age 35 (omitting, of course, his 2005 season where he missed basically the entire season, but including 2007 thus far):

OPS - 275 points
OBP - 121 points
SLG - 153 points
BA - 36 points
BB/Season - 61
HR/Season - 10

Even if you filter out the extra 30-ish HRs he hit in 2001, changing the 73 to, say, 45, there's certainly no decline there. And that's why Barry Bonds record will always be tainted in my mind. Just a quick run through the numbers, adding 6x his career average prior to 2001 to his stats from 2000, and I come up with roughly 700 HRs. In my mind, he's still got 56 to go.

I agree with Churchill. It should've been Junior.

Hank Aaron will always be better than Barry Bonds.

Labels: Barry Bonds, Booooooo, Cheating, Hank Aaron, Home Run Record, Steroids

With Trent dusting off the cobwebs and writing a fine post as to why the M's should not go anywhere near a contract extension for Guillen, neither of us are actually in the mood to see him leave right now, either. At Churchill's Prospect Insider party on Saturday, I brought up the idea of "Selling high" on Guillen, since he's hitting the ball well, kicking butt in the clubhouse (in a good way), and has shown that the TJ surgery didn't stop his awesome arm. We came to the conclusion that if you did that, you're basically giving up on the season.

Guillen's one of the reasons why the 2007 M's are having any sort of success whatsoever against lefty starters. Moving Ibanez out of the 3-hole is another. Heh. But anyway, not only is Guillen performing well, he's also very much leading the charge in the clubhouse. I know the M's are leading the league in overpaying for (and overvaluing) veteran leadership, but in Guillen's case, I'd be willing to be that the M's would lose a lot if they took him out of the clubhouse right now. His bat is hot, hot, hot right now (as is, of course, Beltre's), and he's leading the charge both with his bat and his tongue.

He also hates Mike Scoscia, or so the story goes. Maybe they've patched things up, maybe not. Still, the M's have the best opportunity they've had in years to propel themselves directly into the playoffs. A series win could very well push them over the same hump that reared its ugly head back when the M's couldn't get past the 3-games-over-.500 mark. A series sweep? Yeah, unlikely, but still. In spite of being their real staff ace, Kelvim Escobar has struggled against the M's. They've also seemed to have figured out Jered Weaver's stuff recently, too. And the M's have this knack of dominating tough SPs and struggling vs. weak SPs.

This series is crucial for the M's playoff hopes. It's ironic that it hinges on the non-waiver trade deadline. With T-Rex out of the division, and especially not going to Anaheim, it's time for Guillen to lead the charge and destroy those Angels once and for all!

Labels: Angels, contention, contracts, Division battles, Jose Guillen

Yeah, well, rough game for George tonight. But an even rougher night for the offense, again.

Still, had Reitsma been able to get one guy out, and not walk the heck out of the A's, the inning would've been over before Swish got to the plate. Yeah, George served a meatball. Just like JJ's yesterday, though, it was bound to happen. Reitsma's the guy that can't get an out if he tried.

One of the first changes needs to be the DFA of Reitsma. He's clearly not a high-leverage RP anymore. Let Green and GS52 handle those situations, and EOF and Lowe take 'em in the 6th-7th.

And, of course, Beltre went waaaay out of his way to try and grab a foul ball in left field. Where the heck was the LFer??? Right.

They've picked a baaaad time to start slumping.

Labels: bad luck, defense, DFA, George Sherrill, Losses, Reitsma sucks

Paul invited me to stop by periodically in December and leave my two cents on certain issues and I'm finally getting around to throwing something together. Seven months later. It's been a little while since I've written anything of substance for a blog so bear with me as I'm dusting off the cob webs. I'm hoping this will be a series of short rants over the next week that address certain issues with the Mariners that I think need to be addressed.

I've got to start off with Jose Guillen. Guillen was signed off the free agent scrapheap this offseason and has exceeded expectations on and off the field. That's where the happy warm feelings end. For lack of a better descriptive word, Jose Guillen is an asshole. He's been run out of several teams not for a lack of talent but because of his abrasive personality. Yes, he has been a model citizen this year. Now ask yourself, why? Could it be that after a decade of being run out of a variety of organizations he has finally grown up and changed? Or is it because his body is breaking down, he's getting older and knows that this could be the last chance he has to cash in on a multi-year contract?

While I can't guarantee it, I think the Jose Guillen from the past four months will slowly disappear once he is rewarded with an extension and has a guaranteed paycheck.

Not convinced? Still believe that Guillen's grown up and has now become a model citizen and more than the average to above-average ML right fielder he is? Fine. My above diatribe probably fell on deaf ears. So let me approach this from a different angle. The M's have two of the best OF prospects in major league baseball currently in AAA in Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentin. Wlad will have to be carried on the 25 man roster next season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, where he will easily be the first guy drafted (as long as he's not traded for some mediocre addition in the coming week). Wlad will be 24 years old next season, will cost the league minimum, and has the potential to put up some serious power numbers (he's drawn comparisons to Carlos Lee). Would using two young players in the OF corners be a stretch for the M's? It shouldn't matter but it probably wouldn't be something they'd do. If a guy can produce, why does it matter how old he is? And more importantly, why pay a guy $10 million per season if you can get similar production out of a guy making the league minimum?

Still not convinced? How about 10 more reasons? Jose Cruz Jr., Milton Bradley, Bobby Kielty, Rondell White, Reggie Sanders, Richard Hildago, Trot Nixon, Cliff Floyd, Corey Patterson, and Luis Gonzalez. All ten of these guys figure to be free agents at the end of this year. All ten of these guys are as risky a signing as Jose Guillen was last offseason. Wouldn't rational thought processes suggest that if you were able to catch lightning in a bottle by signing a scrapheap guy cheaply, you might be able to do it again and avoid committing to a guy long-term? Wouldn't letting Guillen walk at the end of the year, offering him arbitration and then collecting the picks while signing a guy like Reggie Sanders or Luis Gonzalez to a one year deal to platoon with Wlad and possibly Adam Jones make a ton of sense?

Hello? Bill? Is this thing on?

Seriously. This team needed to be changed months ago. I can see some hesitation to not want to make changes when things are going well. However, since the All-star break, things are not going well.

A CG from Weaver should've been taken advantage of. But no, instead, he gets charged with a loss. That's a problem! Especially since he is showing signs of actually being a major-league starting pitcher. And a league-average one, even!

Strangely, outside of Felix melting down in Toronto and Ho-Ram pitching on the road, the pitching hasn't entirely been the problem. I'm really actually starting to trust Weaver again.

I don't however, trust Richie Sexson or Raul Ibanez. I was honestly starting to worry about Jose Vidro, but he's been the best hitter on the team since the break. Maybe he's just hoggin' the luck like he's hogged his share at the buffet line.

Still, there's a few guys that have quit pounding on the door and are about to bust it down, if they haven't already unlocked it.

This team's broken, has been since day one, and repair isn't too difficult to manage. It doesn't even require any effort on the trade front, although there's certainly lots of room to explore there...

Ugh. Someone re-light that fire under Bavasi. Remind HIM of the hot seat...

Okay, I've got a major problem. The more I think about this, the more frustrated I get.

I'm actually writing this during the ballgame tonight, but I have been chewing on this all afternoon.

It should surprise no one that I'm no fan of Howard Lincoln. While I won't call him cheap, I will say that he doesn't have a good sense of baseball economics. According to many sources, the Mariners chose to follow Bud Selig's unwritten policy of slotting monies for draft picks and it was for that reason -- not because of a perceived talent gap -- that the Mariners left tonight's starting pitcher for Detroit on the draft board in favor of Brandon Morrow. That came from Howard Lincoln, and not from Bob Fontaine. Miller's signing bonus with Detroit was $3.5 million, and Brandon Morrow's was $2.5 million. Granted, four teams who drafted ahead of the Mariners also passed on Miller, likely because they didn't want to give him above-slot money either. It's entirely possible that Miller didn't prefer to sign with Seattle, and would've wanted more bonus money to sign with Seattle. Even if it took an extra, what $2 million -- or even crazier -- DOUBLE the signing bonus -- that's still, at max, an extra $5 million above what they gave Morrow.

That one decision, by Howard Lincoln (if the reason given for not drafting Miller is as stated above), cost a heck of a lot more than the extra $5 million above what they gave Morrow.

Right now, the M's are a playoff contending team. If you don't believe me, just ask Ichiro, who's on the verge of surrendering likely his last opportunity of really testing his market value on the open market as a player in his prime. The biggest need for the Mariners is pretty much commonly understood as a top-shelf, #2-3 pitcher to keep the M's from losing more games 12-3, 16-2, etc. From here on out, every win is very important, and they need to optimize this team and improve it any way they can to help their chances of winning the division, if not the Wild Card.

Right now, pitching for Detroit, is the pitcher that should have filled that need. Okay, it's the 6th inning right now as I type this, and in spite of the numerous pitches, and the botched play by Carlos Guillen leading to three Mariners runs, I still believe Miller's that pitcher.

I believe the M's opportunity to patch their rotation for 2007 and beyond was blundered like nothing else.

At the time of the 2006 draft, I saw the glaring holes in the M's rotation, and the lack of upcoming free agents who I really wanted. I wanted a pitcher who could've spent the rest of 2006 in pro ball in the minors, and maybe a few months of 2007 at most, and then jump into the bigs early in the 2007 season. In the off chance that the M's were to be playoff contenders in 2007, I knew that pitcher would need to be a reasonable factor in that equation. Lincecum was projected to be one of those types of pitchers, and the same goes for Miller, obviously. A hard-throwing lefty who's tough to hit (except, of course, unless for tonight your name is Jose Vidro)? Yes please. Imagine a 1-2 punch of Felix and Miller right now, even if Miller's still a little raw. They both pitched equally well tonight.

At the time of the draft, I wanted Tim Lincecum over Brandon Morrow. It was a common debate back then and certainly drafting Morrow over Lincecum was Fontaine's call. I'm less likely to bash Fontaine for taking Morrow over TL. I'd heard some people say that Morrow was most likely to end up as a relief pitcher, and may take awhile to develop as a starter. And that was even WAAAAY before the M's were even considering having him start 2007 in their bullpen. I'm not going to drag Fontaine and the Morrow vs. Lincecum debate into this discussion too much further, because I have other points to make. But that's because I didn't think Miller was going to be available to the M's at #5. Clearly Miller was rated as the consensus best pitcher available and was going to spend very little time in the minors. I believed Lincecum was the same way, and that Morrow, while perhaps having a bit more upside over Lincecum in the long run, needed a fair amount of time in the minors to develop as an MLB starter. There was also the fear that the M's were going to pigeonhole Morrow into the bullpen.

While Morrow also may have fewer health concerns (I guess -- I'm not really convinced myself), I would argue that TL, control issues inclusive, is a better pitcher more prepared for the majors today than Brandon Morrow is, even disregarding the point that Morrow's a RP and TL's a SP. Miller's arguably the best of all three right now, too. Both Lincecum and Miller are MLB-quality starting pitchers right now, and likely only will get better as the season develops. Morrow is barely passable right now as a MLB RP.

That 2006 draft decision, that wasted opportunity, is forcing the M's to have to really work the phones and find a starting pitcher on the trade market - all in a clear seller's market. There are lots of teams looking for starting pitching, and the price, in terms of prospects in trade, is going to be high. The Mariners actually have a decent stable of prospects to trade, but does anyone trust Bavasi as a buyer -- look back to what he got for Soriano. Um, yeah. Horacio Ramirez as a #3 starter? Maybe in the AZ Rookie League. I won't even mention how that trade was the second bad domino to fall -- trading Soriano for a bad SP, forcing you to pull a fastball-throwing SP prospect out of his development as a SP and even MORE insanely to rely on him as an 8th-inning high-leverage reliever. Whoops, I just did.

Now that Ichiro's behemoth contract extension is on the verge of being announced, there's a little less need to completely refuse to trade Adam Jones. While I'm still very reluctant, were I GM, I'm certainly not completely opposed as I might've been with Ichiro's status still uncertain. Even still, though, there are very, very few players that I would trade Adam Jones for straight up. Several of those are pitchers who, of course, aren't going anywhere, since their teams are just as in the race as the Mariners.

But I'm not GM, and Bill Bavasi is. And he judges talent MUCH differently than I do. I'd like to say that since he's the one on the M's payroll that his judgements deserve to be trusted more than mine do. But I wouldn't've even traded Rene Rivera (I believe I clearly dilvulged my thoughts on him earlier today) for either of Horacio Ramirez or Jose Vidro, let alone Emiliano Fruto/Chris Snelling and/or Rafael Soriano. Even knowing Snelling's career is possibly (sadly) done, and Soriano had some injury concerns at the time, too.

That's why I'm afraid.

Now, I do believe that Bavasi recognizes Adam Jones' stardom. I think he's still very, very hesitant to trade him. But again -- I'd be willing to bet significant money that the list of players I'd trade AJ for is quite different than Bavasi's.

The news of the day Tuesday seemed to point to Adam Jones being promoted for the game today. Then, yesterday, that news was dismissed and denied for whatever reason. Even if there was no specific, confirmed plan to bring Adam up for the game today in the first place, they're still keeping him down in Tacoma when he's clearly ready for the majors.

The million dollar question now is -- why?

When an upgrade in the outfield defensively clearly is needed, and AJ would clearly help that, why wouldn't you make that move? I suppose one reason may be that they don't want to rock the boat any more than they have to. When things are going well, why change a good thing? An ancient Christian saying is that there's no person too perfect not to need salvation, and likewise, there's no person bad enough that grace can't rescue. To apply that to baseball, it's hindsight, sure, but even in 2001 they could've improved the team and improved their chances to actually make it into the World Series. I argued that back then, and I argue that again this year. I'm fairly certain that the M's aren't wanting to revert to 2002/3 "Stand Pat" mode right now.

Another concern, I suppose, too, could be that the M's management knows how well how clearly awesome Detroit's starting pitchers are, and they wanted AJ to make a softer landing into the majors this season. That's a logical thought, even if it misses part of the point. Taking that a bit further, too, though, what if they're genuinely concerned about having AJ come to the majors and struggle mightily at the plate? After all, he did just that last season (even though he was a) younger and b) not given a clear role and used inconsistently). What if they're so nervous about it that they're keeping him in the minors, where he's clearly beating the crap out of the ball, just so his trade value isn't damaged?

To me, that's the epitome of stupid. Other MLB teams know his value right now, and I'm sure are willing to give legitimate talent to get him, even if he gets off to a slow start in his 2007 MLB debut. I'd be willing to bet that after Felix, Jones' name is probably the first name asked about.

But, I can see the Mariners being somewhat concerned by that. After all, they're the ones who caused a huge roster problem by trading for Jose Vidro. They seem to ignore the fact that Raul Ibanez, too, is a DH in the outfield -- that his years in the Mariners system as a catcher are catching up to him in LF. They also refuse to acknowledge that their current version of "lefty sock" (Ibanez) is hurting their chances to win by placing his .580 OPS (yes, OPS -- NOT SLG) bat vs. lefties third in the order against a lefty starting pitcher. Some of that's McLaren, possibly, but no one's telling him to change the lineup to adjust for that (as far as I know). Likewise, even with a 3-hit night, they also refuse to acknowledge that they have a huge problem at DH.

Certainly the game's not all about statistics, but you'd think that a smart organization would recognize how important it is to maximize the probility of winning as much as they could. Making the adjustments that are most likely to get the most out of what you have.

I'm not sure which starting pitcher they're targeting, if they're indeed on the phones shopping for one. Does anyone believe, though, that they're not? I've heard rumors of several, and I'm sure they were talking to Chicago about Buehrle, before Buehrle signed his extension. But I'm also sure that whatever starting pitcher they may be targeting will cost more than $5 million -- if not over the course of the rest of the season, then certainly likely in 2008 and beyond.

I'm really hoping he also doesn't cost Adam Jones. If it does, then I hope that pitcher is here for a long time and is much better than Andrew Miller. I don't believe such a trade is possible.

Again, Howard Lincoln is not cheap. But if indeed he specifically said no to allowing for an extra $3-5 million above draft slot money it might've taken to get the concensus best pitcher in the draft -- one who clearly was close to becoming a MLB pitcher, in a time when the Mariners clearly needed MLB-ready pitchers (and had few in their system) -- then he needs to also recognize what it very well might have cost the Mariners. I'm not totally convinced Morrow can or will be put back on track to develop as a starting pitcher. It's clear to me anyway that he's not even close to being there now.

This whole branch of problems started with Howard Lincoln, went through Fontaine (to a small extent for drafting Morrow over a more MLB-ready Tim Lincecum), and down through Bavasi (for trading away one of his best late-innings RP aces for a crappy SP, patching not that SP hole and creating a new one in the RP corps AND down on the farm). It's too bad, too. It's a decision that I believed at the time, and still believe today, that will haunt the Mariners for a long, long, long time.

Labels: Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, draft, Howard Lincoln, missed opportunities, snowball effects, starting pitching, tough decisions

There. I said it. Notice the "AKA" change at the top, too.

I think pitchers like Rene Rivera, but the dude's hitting .180./253/.272. In AA. He's taking up a 40-man roster spot that could very likely be needed soon.

About a year ago, right after the 2006 MLB draft, I claimed Adam Moore as one of my new Adopt-a-players over at SportSpot. My comment then was "potentially the best bat taken by the M's in the draft," even though I really didn't know a whole lot about him. Yes, I recognize that High Desert's home park is offense-inflating. But from what I read from those who follow these things more closely, Moore is pretty likely to stick at catcher. From all my conversations w/Churchill, too, Moore is a good bet to actually become a real prospect, even calling him "The top candidate for sleeper prospect of the year" in a May Farm Report for the Seattle P-I. Dave Cameron has him, now, in his "Future Forty" (along with Austin Bibens-Dirkx, too :-)

After a blazing first half, where Moore had a .930 OPS -- roughly .886 on the road and 1.009 at home -- he's started out the two games in the second half on fire, too. While indeed the High Desert launching pad certainly has helped him, he actually has hit more HRs (and XBHs) on the road, and had more RBIs, too.

So, Bavasi/Looper/Mattox/Hunter -- free yourselves of the 40-man spot and, if you want, after he clears waivers and presuming you still want him in the system, move Rivera down a level to see if he could at least OPS .600 in High Desert. And free both Adam Moore and Austin Bibens-Dirkx from High Desert. They're probably both ready now.

Labels: "Free" campaigns, Adam Moore, prospects

What a day. Upon hearing the Ichiro news, I instantly lost any semblance of focus at work. I'm an addict, and I need to re-read the-blogger-formerly-known-as-Munchausen's treatise on baseball and ideologies to help me come back down to earth.

But I can't.

This season, it feels like baseball has loved me back and thanked me. My fandom of George Sherrill in particular has almost always been rewarded (even tangibly), and my die-hardedness in sticking by the M's through thick and thin and Howard Lincoln is also beginning to result in joy that honestly feels as real as a lot of joy I've experienced from more tangible and un-ideological events.

But that's for another post. I want to jot down a few things that crossed my mind during the few glances I got at the game yesterday. I didn't see much of the beginning of it, but I did listen on the radio, and I saw some highlights after the game.

1) Hearing Griffey gunning down A-Rod on the radio was just awesome. Seeing it on the highlights afterwards was even better. I could almost hear Griffey's thoughts about his Seattle homecoming and the reception that A-Rod still gets in Seattle. The camera didn't show him in the field afterward, but I'd bet that trademark grin was at least somewhat cracked.

2) Would you expect anything else from Ichiro? I mean, here he comes into one of the NL parks where a lot of people thought he might be playing at in 2008 and beyond (Dodger stadium would've gotten my vote, though) , upstaging a mega-bopper in his home park, on his own stage, by making history in his own unique way -- hitting the first ITP HR in ASG history. To borrow from a common Lookout Landing joke -- Ichiro is selfish because he rewrites history...

3) Speaking of the ITP HR, it's also fascinating that the RF victim was, yes, Ken Griffey Junior. Gunning down A-Rod, but being the unfortunate victim of a horrible bounce, along with the 2-RBI night that, had the NL held the lead, might've helped Griffey win the ASG MVP. Griffey's still got his game. No RF in the game would've prevented Ichiro's ITP, likely even one that plays RF every day in SF. Maybe I'm biased, but that was a wicked, wicked bounce that fooled everyone. I love Jose Guillen -- seriously, I'm not advocating trading him at all, although I can accept the thoughts from those who do want to trade him -- but Griffey's defense is still acceptable, if not very solid in RF. He's not a CF anymore, and his defense has definitely lost several steps. But he's not a DH-only either. I know Adam Jones is coming up to play RF for now with the M's. Having Griffey come back in 2007 and take over RF, shifting AJ to LF would be the icing of the cake, and would help the M's chances of contending at least as much as adding another starting pitcher would. I know it ain't happening, but if it did, I don't know how I could contain my excitement. Heck, I might even go to FanFest next January and ask Howard's permission to give him a freakin' hug!

4) So indeed Ichiro goes all MVP on the ASG, on the day where the news has pretty clearly leaked out around the world that he's pretty much baseball's newest $100 million man, yet in the interview during the award ceremony, Jeanne Zelasko closes her interview with Ichiro by stating something like "See San Fransisco fans? Ichiro can hit home runs, and he'll be a free agent!" The look on Ichiro's face (after all, Ichiro does know English very well, he just is more comfortable w/a translator because, well, he's neurotic about details) and his body gestures seemed to suggest that he was about ready to make a comment about that. And it was going to be his own way of saying "STFU!" if my memory serves me correctly. EDIT -- Here's the clip on YouTube (at least for the time being -- note that it's not there anymore)...

So, yeah, I agree with Dave Cameron. Yesterday was the biggest day in Mariner Fandom since 10/8/1995. For those of you too young to remember, or not paying attention back then -- I just have two words: "Edgar Double." That should jog your memory...

Labels: All Star Game, awards, defense, Griffey, Ichiro, MVP

How amazing is it that the M's could start their road trip losing a series against the Royals, yet still gain a half a game in the division race? After a tough battle for a loss in extras, followed by a Feierabend meltdown for a complete blowout, McLaren had a tough job to do to inspire the troops to avoid the sweep.

Sure, a manager's direct effect on the win-loss totals is likely fairly low. But having a manager that players are excited about playing for might actually inspire the players to perhaps dig a little deeper and give a little more to contribute to the team's overall success. I'd bet that the players had some respect for Hargrove and liked him as a manager. But McLaren's been in there all along drinking a morning coffee w/JJ Putz during the winter, putting "Sisler" on tongue depressors as a makeshift bat holder for Ichiro's special bats, etc. That kind of relationship can help a coach or a manager help connect with his or her underlings so much better, and is more likely to motivate them even slightly to perform more to his/her expectations.

To me, that's huge. He's got the respect of the players, already, and as mentioned in Andriesen's article linked above, the coaches. That sort of thing is very important when transitioning from one manager to another. Especially in the middle of the season, during a winning campaign, with a decent shot of competing for the playoffs. Of course, this current situation, where the manager resigns during a winning streak and the team on a big roll, never happens, so having a guy like McLaren take the reins and make the transition seemless is very important.

From Baker:

McLaren got a post-game beer shower to celebrate his first win since taking over for Hargrove on Monday. Richie Sexson actually gave him a plastic sheet to cover himself and McLaren was allowed to remove his cap, glasses and a sling his arm has been in since shoulder surgery last week. He also got the game ball, lineup card and a bottle of Dom Perignon autographed by the entire team.

I could be wrong, but I would be very surprised if Hargrove got the same treatment after his first victory. Checking the PI archives from April 2005, I'm not seeing any such mention. Maybe it's unfair, since Baker's a n00b and a pretty darn good reporter, and the other beat writers, well, sucked back then, and we didn't really get access to this type of info. And maybe it's unfair to make the comparison between manager types, since Hargrove's always been a quiet, reserved type and McLaren took classes from Lou Piniella's charm school (and skipped his special education courses on how to properly flip out and get ejected). But I'm guessing it's no small thing that McLaren got a bottle of Dom Perignon autographed by the entire team.

It shows, ever so slightly, how the team feels about him. It shows, perhaps, too, that he's already won over the team. He's certainly won over Ichiro, whose latest comment, as LaRue reports in the Tacoma News Tribune, seems less enigmatic or philosophical than other comments Ichiro has made regarding the manager:

"We don’t know what the future holds for manager John McLaren," Ichiro Suzuki said. "But to be part of his first victory was emotional for all of us. I want to help him win a lot of games in his career."

With Ichiro in his corner, McLaren's got clear control over this team from the get-go. He'll keep them loose, but give them the leadership and motivation they need when things aren't going so well.

I don't know about you, but I'm most certainly excited about the Mariners now. I love the little insights that McLaren gives us on why he makes the moves he makes. Sure, we'll all probably second-guess him constantly. But at least we'll be a little more likely to understand the reason behind those decisions.

McLaren's a guy who, through the media, can connect with the fans, too. We haven't had a manager like that for awhile. That will go at least a little way to winning back fan loyalty. As will, of course, winning.

McLaren's gonna help that, too.

Labels: clubhouse stuff, John McLaren, Managers, winning

Mr. McLaren, I support you. I trust you a little more than I did Hargrove. One thing, though:

GEORGE SHERRILL IS NOT A LOOGY.

Thanks.

What a shocker. No idea why he made the decision and chose today to resign. But he does go down on top, and with the second consecutive sweep, he avoids losing # 100 w/ the M's.

Welcome, John McLaren! You're the right man for the job.

Thanks, Hargrove, for making the decision. You're a good man, and I'm glad to see you make the choice, rather than having the choice made for you.

Go off into the sunset with your Harley! And enjoy the hell out of it.

Wherein Marc W., Juan Sandoval get pwned by Gaia!

The last Rainiers report occurred mere hours after a fender bender outside of my beloved Cheney Stadium. Taking what I thought was a clear hint from Nature, I decided I was done with driving a couple of minutes to the game, even if I was late. I'm a walking fan, and I thought Nature would support that decision. But no - Gaia shows no favor to those supplicants who reduce their carbon footprints by walking, just as she shows no mercy to those Rainiers who are differently abled.

Tonight's game pitted the Rainiers and the Portland Beavers, and the pitching match-up was mildly intriguing. Juan Done got the call for Tacoma, a few weeks after getting lit up by the Beavers in PGE park. Former M's farmhand Ryan Ketchner took the mound for Portland. Ketchner was a fave among M's minorleague fans for his decent K rates, but the org let him go in the Jolbert Cabrera deal back in 2004. No? Not even mildly intriguing? Eh, yeah, that was a bit of a stretch. Did I mention that Ketchner is almost totally deaf? Is that at least mildly heart warming?



The game got off to a decent start, as Jeff Clement followed a Bryan LaHair single with a long HR to right. This photo shows, crappily, the follow through that Clement took on that HR swing. You might hope for an in-focus shot, or for a photo showing the swing/contact instead of the rather more mundane follow-through (how do you know this is the follow through from the HR swing? How do you know this was taken *at tonight's game at all?* Riddle/Enigma/Puzzle sandwich, to be sure. But I like to think we've built up a rapport, and I like to think you know I'm not joshing (all five of) you. Here it is:


Whew, that's blurry. Let's move on.

Juan Done imploded in the top of the third, giving up 5 runs on a two-run single by Vince Sinisi (4-4 on the day, with 4 wussy singles). Immediately after a chat with pitching coach Dwight Bernard, Done gave up a line drive 3R HR right down the line in left to 2B Craig Stansberry. Done also felt like he was getting squeezed and had a bit of a chat with the umpire after the inning (he also threw a pitch to the backstop after a late time-out call in the next half-inning; I don't think Done and the umpire will be meeting up for a beer later). Juan settled down and ended up going 6IP of 5H 5R ball, but the M's just couldn't get anything going against Ketchner who was 0-8 coming into the game. Ryan's line was a very impressive 7IP 4H 2R 2BB 9Ks.

Juan Sandoval, the man who was *shot in the face* in his native Dominican Republic, came on to replace Done in the 7th, but Gaia would not let his inspiring story unfold. Sandoval uses goggles to reduce glare in his non-functional left eye (and if you just started reading at this point, I may need to explain that Sandoval's left eye was SHOT. In a restaurant), but Gaia petulantly started raining just after the 7th began. By the second batter, Sandoval couldn't see out of his right eye (his other eye having been SHOT OUT OF HIS FACE) and placed the goggles on the brim of his hat. The umpire, mad after being shown up by Juan Done, decided to assert control and told Sandoval to remove the goggles from the hat (maybe because they were reflecting light or something. I don't know; if a guy whose eye was shot out was on the mound, dealing 90+ heat, I'd let him leave some f******* goggles on his hat. That's just me. Gaia, this umpire, they loooove lording it over one-eyed pitchers. Dicks.). At this point Sandoval couldn't really see much, and he gave up 3 consecutive singles, scoring another Beaver run. In the 8th, the skies really opened up, and Sandoval clearly couldn't see much. After a lead-off walk, and a single following it, his night was through, and Jason Mackintosh closed things out by allowing one inherited run to score.
In the bottom of the 8th, just as reliever Aaron Rakers was announced, a deluge began. Gaia knew I was walking home, and she saw my jeans and laughed, probably how her slutty cousin Fate laughed when she decided to have Juan Sandoval's left eye blown out. The game? The game was abandoned, and the Beavers "won" 7-2. I'm OK now, after a couple glasses of Basil Hayden's (my apologies for a somewhat scattered, eye-obsessed Report tonight), but I can't shake the feeling that Gaia was nasty, not just to me, but to poor Juan Sandoval.
Gaia, for your actions tonight, you get the Morsels backwards K of the night.




For M's 'spect watchers, Adam Jones started in RF tonight, obviously getting some work in the corners, should he be needed in Seattle (hint hint hint). Wlad took over in CF and looked OK, though he didn't have much to do. He nearly threw out a runner at home after Sinisi's bases-loaded single in the third, but his throw was just on the 1B side of home. Jones also had a near miss, after nearly surprising Drew Macias at third following Luke Carlin's single.
Jeff Clement followed his HR with a walk and a strikeout.
--------------------------------------------
Morsels Q and A!!!!


Q: NBA draft/trade? Your thoughts?
A: Awesome. The sonics get the best talent in the draft, coupled with an actual post presence in Green, who will probably outrebound the past 4 Sonics first-rounders combined next year. Losing RayRay is tough, but it's right for the team. Now sign Rashard, and call it a year. Oh, and stick around, too.

Q: Wlad - is he for real, or is this some sort of fluke?
A: As someone who's been talking about Wlad for years, including when 99% of M's fans thought he'd never amount to anything, I'm loving this. It's clearly for real too, despite an uptick in his K rate. He's simply a more disciplined, more advanced hitter. He's a guy who had huge flaws in his game, but who also had prodigious power and natural ability. By listening to his coaches and working on his flaws, he's made himself a legit blue-chipper, and I think that's awesome. M's bloggers need an underdog to root for with Snelling gone, and I think Wlad's the one (oh, uh, and ABD too! Sorry Paul!).

Q: George Sherrill - how much of this is luck?
A: Not much. Look, his peripherals looked almost identical to Mike Gonzales coming into the year, and he's gotten even better this year. He's dropped his walk rate, and his sneaky fastball is proving way too much for the best lefties in the game. Might he give up a longball to a righty? Might an inherited runner or two score? Sure, but we're witnessing one of the better lefty set-up seasons in memory; this one goes down with Arthur Rhodes' 2001, and it's clearly better (in WPA terms) than Ed Vande Berg's 1982. Enjoy it, and remember: Positive Paul told you this would happen.

Q: Who sucks?
A: Jake Woods.

Q: M's pythagorean winning percentage is just 'meh' but they're right in the WC hunt. What gives?
A: The bullpen gives, that's true. And given the number of freakishly terrible starts the M's have endured, it's probably not that surprising that the M's pythag is out of whack. They look like a contender 4 out of 5 nights, and that hasn't been true in a while. The biggest worry is the defense. Their team DER is terrible, and that's gotta change if they want guys like Batista and Weaver to keep them in contention. On the other hand, thanks to some nice bullpen management, the 'pen may singlehandedly keep this team in the race. Forget taking a lead into the 6th or 7th, with solid years from Sean Green and Eric O'Flaherty, this team basically only needs 4-5 innings (see Feierabend, Ryan) from its starters. There are still a ton of question marks, but there are also legitimate strengths, strengths that might keep the M's in the race this fall. This is all quite lovely for us NW baseball fans, but that pit in my stomach comes from the fact that Bill Bavasi may feel the need to make a move at the deadline this year. Last year, Bavasi gave up a 20-YO shortstop who's putting up a near .900 OPS this year to go along with MLB-quality defense for a RH DH who retired from baseball about 5 months after the trade. *Rad!* This year, I have nightmares that Wlad Balentien gets dealt for the grittiest, veteranest, clubhouse-mentorest crap the AL can belch up. That, or a crappy 5th starter. Eric Milton's on the DL, which eases my mind a bit, so here's hoping that Bill doesn't panic after Buehrle goes to the Yanks and trades Mark Hendrickson for Adam Jones or something.

After his performance today, I'm starting to really remember why I liked the thought of adding Jeff Weaver into the rotation during the offseason. While I see him as having some issues with his emotions, tonight, and last week vs. the Pirates both, I saw a different player than what I saw at the beginning of the year.

For some players, there's a fine edge between being able to control their emotions in a good way -- to channel that anger to dominate -- and to be demonized by them so that they collapse under the weight of their emotions. In the first part of Jeff's Mariners career, he was clearly frustrated and the cycle of frustration got so big that he looked helpless and lost any sense of how to pitch. Over the last couple of games, however, he seemed to keep things under wraps and channel that emotion into confidence.

It's possible that the data shows otherwise, but it appeared that Jeff didn't let the jams get to him, and he was able to put a tourniquet on the bleeding when he needed to. That mental edge and the ability to get out of jams, whether major or minor, seemed to suggest that Jeff's turning things around.

No, he won't be a great pitcher. It's likely that the balls that were getting pounded through holes to start the year aren't finding those holes right now. Jeff's just such an emotional guy, that when he's focused and controlling those emotions, he's more likely to pitch effectively. He's always been the type that needs confidence to pitch, and if you mess with it, he totally implodes. That's why he was kicked out of New York. Seattle's nurturing environment, both in the organization and in the fanbase, really is a good fit for Jeff. If he can get his ERA+ up from the low 40s to closer to 100, that's the same as adding another pitcher in there. I wouldn't bet on his recent performance being sustainable, but you can always hope.

With no other options in our farm system (although Popeye Campillo would be fun to watch, perhaps) to slip into the rotation, it's very important that Weaver pick up the slack and clean up the mess he started with. Adding MORE pitching would be nice, but it's going to be expensive. And everybody's going to be trying to do it as well.

I'll await Jeff's and Dave's commentary, if either of them take the time to say anything about his performance today. But I do believe he was being successful throwing whatever offspeed pitch seemed to work for him -- the change, the slider, whatever it was he had success with -- kept Boston off balance and limited the damage. A few balls were smoked -- the one off the LF scoreboard, for example, but it wasn't nearly like in the games earlier in the season. I hope it's more repeatable, now that he's shown success against both a horrible club and arguably the best in the league. I honestly sorta cheer for Jeff, in the way you sorta cheer for Spicoli in "Fast Times at Ridgemont High." Nice to see Hargrove stand in his corner today, like Mr. Hand did w/Spicoli.

Gee. I wonder if Felix is paying attention. Throwing off-speed and breaking stuff, mixing the pitch selection rather than throwing 95% fastballs will especially be important since, unlike Pittsburgh, Boston's got a lineup that can do some serious damage...

I'm not tired of all the Griffey talk. I'm sorry if you are, and don't want any more. Too bad. While Buhner was my favorite M back in that era, Griffey wasn't far behind. Watching the two of them together, though, really drew me into baseball. Seeing Griffey play with his dad, too, drew me in further. To me, one of baseball's all-time greatest moments happened when Jr. and Sr. had back-to-back HRs. Such a feat hadn't happened before, and I'd be hard pressed to believe it'll happen again. While I know that Junior is gone (as are those days w/the M's), the one that's still with us is still pretty doggone good.

Again, the M's playoffs discussion starts with improving the run prevention -- via starting pitching and defense. Maybe Yuni will remember how to throw the ball to first base, and that will help some. And maybe they'll do something about that outfield defense.

But a part of me can see a bit of merit in luring Griffey back to Seattle. Hear me out, before you blow a gasket. I recognize that it's folly to believe that a) he'd want to come back here and b) the M's would pony up the cash/players to make it happen. Let me be a fan boy homer for a weekend. And wallow in the misery of the joy of my past (and lack thereof in the present).

Let's look at something interesting for a minute. How would bringing Griffey back to Seattle affect Ichiro? I could argue that Ichiro would love it. Imagine Griffey's .932 OPS vs. lefties and .960 OPS vs. righties batting third for the Mariners. You think Ichiro would hate being driven in all the time? I think Ichiro would be happy with that. I'm not sure he's real thrilled about the lineup that's currently constructed behind him. Also, chew on this for a minute:

In March 1999, as part of a working agreement between the Nintendo-owned Mariners and the Blue Wave, Ichiro joined the M's for a spring training stint. He became friends with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and began to dream of playing in Seattle. (--ESPN the Magazine archives)

Ichiro dreamed of playing specifically in Seattle, thanks at least in part to Junior? Again, that Junior may not be around anymore, but the Junior that is certainly has his value. He may have lost a dozen steps defensively, but he still loves playing the game. And he can still hit. He's still showing his 41% better-than-league-average bat. A career OPS+ of 141, and his 2007 OPS+ thus far still exactly right there.

Looking to the future, too -- if Ichiro leaves, and the M's don't show any signs of moving towards giving the fans exciting October baseball, then they'll need something to really keep people interested. I'm all for a temporary stop-gap for excitement and relevance of the execs bringing back Griffey to spend his last days back here where he belongs. Landing career milestons in the uni from which he launched 'em.

Felix will be good and all, but I doubt he's done anywhere close to 'nuff for the Safeco bandwagoners to crown him king of their hearts, like the blogosphere has (even if those crown-givers are seeing the tarnish in his crown). If Ichiro leaves, then the M's will be really hurtin' and will need a quick-fix to grab some fans back. It'd be completely easy for them to market the heck out of Griffey's return enough to keep 2 million or so ticket buyers' wallets open.

It wouldn't necessarily be a bad move. Or, wait. It probably would. I'm just a victim of all this damned propganda!

/Wakes up from dream land.
//Grabs a kleenex...

Labels: Dilemmas., Griffey, Ichiro, Nostalgia

Good on you, Jeff! Way to pitch a heckuva game. I don't care that it was against the Pirates -- you struggled against an equally-woeful Royals lineup, and showed that when you pitch with your brain you can pitch in the majors.

Still, to adapt a common image we borrow over at LookoutLanding:


Anyone who saw that one coming obviously has Marty McFly's 2007 Sports Almanac.

Losing 3-4 to the Cubs, being swept by the Stros, and now a loss to the Pirates?

NOW can Hargove be fired???

I don't care how poor of a reason this may be. It may just be a bit unfair to put it on him. Still, there's a window of opportunity there. Get rid of him now that we have the shot.

His bias against having kids in there that can more likely help than not is killing the team.

Free Adam Jones.

Free John McLaren.

Yes, we need pitching. We need help in the rotation, especially, and perhaps one more good arm in the 'pen. We need a pitcher that can pitch deeper into ball games. Ultimately, though, is going out and surrendering prospects the only way to upgrade our pitching?

Not necessarily.

The difference between good pitching and bad pitching, ultimately, is run prevention. Good pitchers, in combination with good defenses, can increase run prevention. Mediocre pitchers can be helped out by having extraordinary defenses behind them. Upgrading the defense can at least slightly increase the overall run prevention side of the win/loss equation (that being that you have to score more runs than you surrender to win ball games).


While defensive metrics are still not scientifically relevent yet, they're not completely useless either. Upgrading a notably bad, both statistically and scouting-wise, outfielder with one that is better can help the run prevention, and help the pitching.

As long as the difference between the bat that's added and the bat that's replaced is minimal, and the impact on the more-scientifically sound run scoring side of the equation is neutral, at worst, the improvement on defense can make the overall team better. Having a good defense that's less likely to have miscues that extend innings and prevent pitchers from going deeper into games can improve a team's chances of winning. With the extra bonus, too, of possibly allowing pitchers to pitch deeper into ball games.

While I recognize that this idea may be thinking outside of the box a bit for the Mariners, I'd bet that they're at least aware of the principles outlined here. Now, I'm not expecting a change, but I would like to imagine that moving a clearly-ready-for-the-majors Adam Jones into left field, defensively-challenged Raul Ibanez to the DH, and Jose Vidro to the first-bat-off-the-bench would actually help the pitching staff, and may slightly improve the offense.

I realize there are several potential problems with this. It takes out one 'lefty' bat in Vidro, where this team doesn't need to surrender lefty bats. Raul Ibanez also is more comfortable when he's playing the field, and the potential discomfort he may have could affect his hitting. Jones also isn't a natural outfielder, even if he's a heck of an athlete, and while he has learned CF remarkably well, there's always a risk of seeing how well he'd transfer to LF.

I don't see those things as major risks, though. They're very small, really, and I'd actually have Vidro in at DH vs. lefty pitching, and I think he could still get regular playing time. Plus, the type of hitter Vidro is (singles hitter, keeps the ball on the ground, rarely gets XBHs or flyouts) can kill a lot of rallies when he GIDPs. Jones has much more power, and while his batting average may not reach .290 in the bigs right away, there's much, much more to offensive numbers than batting average. I'd be willing to bet that Jones could put up an OPS higher than Vidro's .710, especially when given consistent playing time. And, I'd be willing to be that the pitching numbers would noticably improve, too.

And, you don't have to make a trade to get him in there. Perhaps it's at the cost of Ellison. Nothing against Jason, of course, but I like Adam better. While Ellison actually would be a defensive upgrade, I doubt his bat is any better than Vidro's. And, no way is it better than Jones's...

Labels: Adam Jones, defense, Jose Vidro, pitching, Raul Ibanez, tough decisions

Man. What a game.

I can't believe the Mariners, and their decimated bullpen, pulled out that victory. It's about time they cashed in on the expensive payments on players who were brought in to develop team chemistry. It's really nice to have exciting baseball again with the Mariners. This team may not be as good as they have been as of late, but this team isn't boring like they have been the last few years...

While Davis, O'Flaherty and Putz all did their jobs, the pitching hero definitely was our guy George. Coming in to relieve Morrow, with the bases loaded and only 1 out -- any sort of decent contact and the Cubs score a run. Top of the 9th with a lead, the Cubs probably would've won. Davis, EOF, and Putz wouldn't've gotten the chance to do what they did. And Willie wouldn't've gotten his gritty RBI (no thanks to Vidro who, when he finally made up his mind what he was doing, lucked into the run when Barrett dropped the ball).

I don't want to take away from what O'Flaherty did tonight. He pitched incredibly well, and deserves a ton of kudos, too. But if GS52 doesn't do his job in the 8th, the M's don't make it to extras.

Big High-5, George! And a big high-5 to the team for making it a team effort and a team win tonight.

Refuse to Lose is BACK!

Labels: bullpen, George is awesome, George Sherrill, pitching, relief pitchers, team victory

So, I'm really starting to get tired of Felix being crowned king already. Yeah, he's got great stuff. He's got excellent pitches -- the best I've ever seen, too. Problem is -- he seems to have issues knowing what to throw when. It seems like the hitters are ignoring his good stuff, and just sitting on his fastball, knowing that he's going to give it to them -- up in the zone, just where they want to see it.

Although I didn't watch the game yesterday, I saw the highlights. And, I heard enough of Bill Krueger to know that Bill was way off base. No, Felix doesn't need to lay off of his breaking stuff. He needs to establish his curve, his slider, and his 2-seamer. He needs to throw those for strikes. It sounds like the defense was sort of an issue yesterday, as Ellison was a little rusty in CF, and Lopez had issues turning the DP. Still, Felix wasn't getting people to swing and miss, which is vitally important to how he pitches. He was being hit hard -- and in the post-game interview (in English, admirably), he even admitted that he was struggling mightily with his command.

I'm still wondering if it's pitch selection he's struggling with. And, he really needs to recall the first two games from his mental memory bank. That could make the difference between the M's staying in the hunt (either for the Wild Card or the Division) and falling back down into the cellar. Or, is he really healthy? His last few performances may suggest otherwise. He's definitely not the Felix I saw in the first two games of the season.

He's got the potential, and he's still very young. Still, if he's as other-worldly as people believe he is, it's time he starts showing it. I'm very tired of seeing the Felix of 2006. This is 2007, and he was off to such a great start...

Labels: Felix Hernandez, pitching, struggles

I've been mulling over this post for a long, long time. I figure I better start writing things down and finish it before it's a) irrelevant or b) covered excessively elsewhere. Since b) can only get worse as the 2007 season rolls on, I'm going to get my thoughts down now.

In analyzing the Ichiro situation, and his impending free agency, it's relatively straightforward to take a simple approach -- look at scenarios and do a cost-benefit analysis of those scenarios. So, that's what I'm going to do here. I'll definitely further discuss my opinions in a later post or two, but for now I just want to make an attempt to lay down some simple framework.

Scenaro 1 -- Ichiro is traded during the season

Notes: For this to happen, it will have to become very, very clear that Ichiro wants to leave Seattle, and becomes very public or vocal about it. I'd be very surprised if this scenario comes into play, even though I could argue it may make the most sense for the M's.

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears.
• If LH major-league-ready bat doesn't come over in a trade, that's one more LH bat the M's need to add back into the lineup.
  
• Fans disappointed/angry/sad/annoyed, etc. (leading to potential significant revenue loss).
  
• Potential loss of other role players in an Ichiro + trade.
• M's lose a little more of the national spotlight, and their relevance, by losing a nationally-recognized Mariner (i.e. when some random Yankees fan in Illinois is asked to name at least one Seattle Mariner, I'd bet that fan would be most likely to name Ichiro, if he/she's able to name any M's player at all. We need to work more on the "Free George Sherrill" campaign).
  

Benefit:

• Adam Jones develops as the M's new CF, and adds a little more punch to the lineup.
  
• Ichiro would likely bring some big time impact players via trade -- players that would potentially fill more than one hole on the team.
• A possibly distracting situation is resolved.
  

Scenario 2 -- Ichiro stays the entire season, and leaves via free agency.

Notes: This is a real possibility, with Howard/Chuck and the rest of the M's execs very hesitant to trade their franchise player. It would also likely be the most painful for everyone but Ichiro. However, since this really would be one of the first times Ichiro would be a free agent , ever, I can see where he really honestly would like to at least reach free agency. I mean, think about it -- wouldn't you want to have the baseball resume Ichiro has, and finally be able to have a lot of control over your own destiny? It's Russian Roulette for the team, as it really could be tough selling Ichiro on this franchise's future. Especially if the front office turmoil that needs to happen, happens. But, of course, one could argue that a front office churnage would also encourage Ichiro to stick around. Especially if the manager's one of those casualties...

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears (in 2008 and beyond).
• Losing out on potential trade chips that could help the team.
  
• M's lose relevance and national spotlight even more (in 2008 and beyond).
• Another LH bat needed in the lineup.
  

Benefit:

• Ichiro helps the team in 2007, if they are close to a playoff race.
  
• Payroll flexibility, as Ichiro's not going to be cheap.
  
• Adam Jones inherits the CF job.
  
• Team would definitely offer arbitration, and get the draft pick(s) that Ichiro's departure could potentially help out in the future more than Ichiro can.
  

Scenario 3 -- Ichiro remains a Mariner, either through signing a contract extension during the season, or as a free agent.

Notes: Right now, I'd say this is the most likely scenario, but, honestly, that's more of a guess than anything. Unless Ichiro truly wants out (which I don't think even he knows yet, but is still very, very possible), I think he stays in Seattle. The M's will give him plenty of money, and I'm sure he knows that, and I can certainly see where that might not be the best idea, too.

Cost:

• Payroll. Lots of it. Ichiro's going to get a boatload of cash. He'd likely tie up around 20% of the M's payroll. That's a huge chunk, really.
• Potential trade of Adam Jones or other OF prospects (Wlad, Reed, etc...).
• Risk of aging effects. I would argue that Ichiro's more likely to buck the aging trends, but I still recognize that there's some real, significant risk in committing 3-5 years to a 35+ year old player.
  
• Flexibility. Sort of inherent in the payroll thing, because they do go hand-in-hand, but it could work to their disadvantage, too. If they're going to have a $100 million payroll from now on, is it in their best interest to give Jose Guillen 1/2 of what Ichiro would've gotten? By giving so much money to Ichiro, this answers that question a bit. But, it also could close another potential opening for a much needed power hitter.
  
• Losing out on potential trade chips that, combined, could help the team more than Ichiro himself could.

Benefit:

• M's keep some relevance and retain some national spotlight (in 2008 and beyond).
• Ichiro's hitting, fielding, running. While there's some risk of those skills diminishing, there's also a fair enough chance that they don't decline significantly. Especially if you consider Ichiro (as I do) a HOF-caliber player.
  
• One less LH bat to acquire.
• Fan satisfaction -- potential retention of revenue by having happy fans that don't overreact to losing yet another huge Seattle franchise star...
  

Okay, so that's my stab at this. What am I missing? Do you see costs/benefits in any of these scenarios that I've overlooked. I know you do -- I can't see everything, and I tend to overlook even the obvious a lot of the time...

Labels: contracts, Dilemmas, free agency, Ichiro, trades